captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> ifill: good evening, and welcome to the pbs "newshour" special coverage of the 2012 election. i'm gwen ifill. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff. a closely fought campaign between president barack obama, and mitt romney, the former massachusetts governor, has come down to this night when tens of millions of voters finally have their say. >> ifill: it's just after 8:00 eastern time and the polls have now closed in almost half the states and the district of columbia, including 15 states that closed just hometowns ago. >> woodruff: there are now

some fresh results to share with you, based on exit polling in key precincts and early returns, the networks have called the state of georgia for mitt romney. this is not a surprise. this is a state that went to john mccain four years ago, but just to recap, the state of kentucky has also been called for governor romney. the state of vermont going to barack obama, again, not a surprise. this is a very blue state. west virginia for governor romney. and i believe we have one other state, south carolina. all of these states so far, again, i guess you would kay, gwen, in the predictable column-- and indiana, one other state we have been able to call-- rather the associated press, or the networks. our rule has been either the associated press would make a projection or two television networks and then we share it with our audience. >> ifill: we hav we want to shae with you our ground rules. the "newshour's" policy is to

report results projected by associated press. we will also tell you when two television networks have called a state if a.p. hasn't done so. the television networks, twlz a.p., make projections based on exit polls by a consortium known as edison research. >> woodruff: and for those of you seeking a two-screen experience, which we know some of you are, you can also follow us tonight on our multichannel live stream. there can find up-to-the-minute results on our interactive map center. you can find a live election blog. you can find speeches from the winners and losers that will be coming along later tonight, and a whole lot more. >> ifill: here with us in our election night studio, which is very spiffy, if i say so myself, as they will be all evening long-- they're spiffy, too, and how long-- >> woodruff: especially when you see the overhead shot. >> ifill: mark shield, and david brooks, and michael

beschloss, and richard norton smith, and we're going to talk among ourselves for just a moment what we see coming. what are you watching for, david? >> florida and virginia right now. you want-- >> ifill: do you have a white board? >> i wish i did. i'm not that spiffy. we talked a lot about ohio. but to get to ohio mitt romney has to hurdle florida and virginia. and we've really got no real information but little whiffes of information, looking pretty competitive in both places. so the romney people should be looking nervously at both those states. >> woodruff: why do you say that, because they thought they would be doing better? >> because of who is come out to vote, the exit polls. they looked close in those state and romney really has to win those. >> ifill: what information are you picking up? >> i'm always fasinated by david's whiffs, and i think virginia is interesting because they had to extend the voting hours in virginia, from normal closing. >> woodruff: based on long-- >> long lines that people were in lines, which i think--

democrats are always cheered by larger turnout. that's a rule of thumb. >> ifill: we just heard in virginia they had to keep the polls open or won't-- they won't report results until 8:00, even though the polls close at 7:00 because the lines are so long everybody in line get to vote. >> i'm looking for the ohio so, john hustead, whose name may go down in the annuals of catherine harris because of ohio's quirky laws and his central role as election officer of the state. he is going to report at 8:30, or about 8:30 the early voting. and all the counties are supposed to count that first. so we'll find out just how big a lead, if barack obama has built up, in the early voting, and if mitt romney can catch up on election day turnout? >> we should emphasize the early voting tend to be democratic. so you get a wave that will be probably disproportionately

democrat. >> ifill: we can mention it but we have to put it in context. >> woodruff: a number of states-- in fact i think 16 states, polls closed at 8:00 eastern, and the first we are able to call, the district of colombia, the nation's capital, has gone for barack obama. >> ifill: i think the 87 is whether it's 90% or 95%. in illinois, the president's home state, of course, has also gone for barack obama, once again, no big surprise. >> woodruff: another state has gone for the president. the state of maine. it's a state he won four years ago. >> ifill: and the next call we have, also from the network projections, maryland, which has been a high-voting state-- we have seen incredibly long lines there. and obamas had won there. >> massachusetts, the state where mitt romney was governor, but no surprise here, because this is a state that has gone democrat many years for the president. >> ifill: i'm really curious-- oh, we also have oklahoma a big

state out west, which we haven't seen before in all of our calls tonight, and mitt romney has won oklahoma which has probably never gone democratic. >> woodruff: at least in a very, very, very long sometime. i think maybe they went for john kennedy. they went for lyndon johnson in '64. >> ifill: we'll be back in a moment with more results it the down-to-the-wire presidential election. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> music is a universal language. when i was in an accident i was worried the health care system spoke a language all its own. with united health care i got help that fit my life, information on my phone, connection to doctors who get where i'm from, and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never miss a beat. >> we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70

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we have been making this calls. the polls can closed, gwen, in several states. 16 states at this hour. 8:00 on the east coast. we've been able to make some calls a few minutes ago based on what the associated press is doing. and here are additional ones. the state of connecticut, where the polls have just closed. a.p. is projecting the president has won that state. >> ifill: in delaware, the home state of vice president joe biden, the projection is that barack obama will win. >> woodruff: in rhode island, this is the nation's smallest, and a state that has gone democratic for many years. i'll have to ask mark shields because he's our resident expert on how many years these state have gone. when was the last time a republican-- >> 1984. >> woodruff: i knew you would say that. >> ifill: can i ask you about massachusetts for a moment? we expected president obama to win in massachusetts but it is governor romney's-- the state he was governor of. is that at all unusual? >> i'm interested in the margin in massachusetts.

because in some polls he was run as far as-- governor romney was running 25 or 30 points behind the president there. and this would be historic. because no nominee, there's extensive chauvinistic pride people have when someone is nominated. governor george mcgovern got 46%, 47% in-- >> ifill: i remember in 2000, when al gore lost tennessee. >> but he didn't lose it two to one. >> that's right. >> being very blunt about it, mitt romney was governor of massachusetts just six years ago and wasn't defeated. i mean, he chose not to run again. and certainly was not driven out of the state by any means ?rood it's interesting, david, during the campaign, for the longist teem, governor romney barely mentioned his governor shch massachusetts. towards the end he would talk about it and talk about it regarding his ability to work with democrats. >> one of the notable things that happened was the shift

toward the middle in the last month or two of the campaign, which really boosted him up, and the interesting thing-- and i'm sure every other republican politician was looking at it-- the lack of screaming and huing and crying from the right as he did this. and so i think the party knew what they needed to do to try to win and that will be, if he does go on to lose, or even if he doesn't, if they don't take back the senates in the fights that will occur, the shift to the right and the success of the shift. >> one quick advantage governor romney did have. three times as many of his voters were voting against barack obama. he had a little bit of a license because two out of five voters on the republican side voting for him, all they wanted to do was beat barack obama. so he was not going to get the kind of call to accounting for moving to the middle because they were more interested not novoting for mitt romney, jut for beings barack obama. >> woodruff: are you referring umark, to exit polls or polling-- >> poll throughout the campaign, throughout the campaign. that's what it came down to

essentially was that two out of five of the people voting for mitt romney, all they wanted to do was beat barack obama. only one out of eight obama people vote of, voters were interested in beating mitt romney. they were interested in voting for barack obama. there was a different profile of each side. i think that gave him more latitude with the conservative base of the party. >> woodruff: speak of boston, and other places, let's hear now from our colleagues-- actually, ray suarez is in chicago. he and margaret warner are at the two presidential campaign headquarters, but, ray, we're going to come to you first. are you in chicago, and that's where president obama is tonight. >> that's right. he's just a few miles away. he's not here yet. and neither are a lot of the senior officials from the campaign. i think they probably want to wait to see a little bit more, but illinois senior senator, senator dick durbin is here, and there have been a lot of poll closings, a lot of projections, but so far no surprises. what do you need to see before you can really relax?

>> some of the key battled ground states-- florida, virginia, ohio, and of course when we get in the midwest, a little closer to my activity in the last few months for the president, taking a look at wis cons and i know iowa. if we can get the job done in the midwest, and i hope we do glie you're not up this sickle. when you don't have a race, what does someone in your position do? it sound like you've been traveling a lot. i spent a lot of time campaigning for the president, especially in the midwest, focusing on congressional race here's in illinois. we have six races that are red-hot races out of 18 congressional seats so i've had a lot of business here in the state. >> suarez: how are those races looking? >> it looked good. we have the potential of winning sir, giving five new democratic seats to the democrats in howts and miew us closer to the majority. >> suarez: in the senate, where you're in the leadership, how are those races looking? >> we have angus king just declared the winner in maine. we're hoping he will caucus with the democrats. he has not said publicly yet

whether he will. and some of the races coming through. joe donnelly in indiana has been projected a winner by son. that's a pickup seat for us. both of those are pickup seats. we have others more hotly contested, a lot closer but so far, good news. >> suarez: and the president himself, you've been close to him for many years, a mentor to him during his statewide race this year. what have you seen this year in the campaign? it's been sometimes a little harder road. >> it's an extraordinary campaign. it's much tougher to run as an incumbent in a recovering economy, and i think we know that, and he was up against it. of course, mr. romney was forced into positions in a very tough republican primaryux which were hard to confident come november. i would think if he had one thing to do all over again, he would have said let's not print that article about letting the auto companies go bankrupt. that turned out to be an albatross for him throughout the campaign. it might have sounded good in the primary. it didn't work very well in

november. >> suarez: thanks for joining us, illinois senator dick durbin. >> ifill: this is a 50-state race and we have three more projections made in the deep south, none of them big surprise, but two networks have now declared that mitt romney has won in alabama and also as well he has won in mississippi, and the third is in tennessee. where nom tonight has won the majority of the vote. >> woodruff: that's state you were saying a minute ago al gore was not able to win when he was on the ballot. >> ifill: that's right. it didn't quite work. now we're going to go to boston where margaret warner is outside romney headquarters in boston. margaret. >> warner: hi. it's cold here. >> ifill: it's cold here. so far, we've made several calls, all of them in state so far that were not the contested state. but is it boosting people at all? do they feel like this is going as well as they had hoped or are they a little bit nervous about what to expect later?

>> warner: well, as i mentioned earlier gwen, they have been nervous all day, even though they-- by the end of the day, they were thinking their own turnout was great. here's what i'm being told. as i mentioned earlier, they had hoped that virginia would be pretty clearly a romney win pretty early on. that-- it's not yet. that said, it's only one hour since the polls closed. and they know that the networks are being very careful, and the associated press, to call any state. so they're not yet disheartened by that. but this is a very big-- this hour now is very big to them. new hampshire was key. they had high hopes of getting those four electoral vote, that there had been a trend toward romney. romney. as know, he end, at least last night, his final big rally was last night in new hampshire, and also of course at this hour you have florida and pennsylvania. they are looking at exit polls in terms of the composition of the electorate, and the one thing that's heartening them is a couple of the networks are

reporting about independents, about mitt romney doing better with independents than barack obama, maybe even by low double digits, and as you know, obama won the independents by eight points last time. >> woodruff: margaret, we know that they're not only watching the news organizations. they are looking at what is being called or-- from individual election offices and counties around the state. do you have any sense of whether the romney people are in touch with-- we know in northern virginia and counties like louden and prince william, those were considered to be important counties for mitt romney that would tell early in the evening-- this is in the collar area around the distric districf columbia around washington-- are they get anything sense from parts of virginia or any recalling state? >> warner: well, not that they're telling me, gwen. which doesn't mean they aren't, because they had this whole system set up with people at these key precincts with smart

phonessably to report both who voted literally, who voted by name, who hadn't yet voted. and staying there to report preliminary returns or returns. so, you know, it may be coming into the war room, which is by the way not here at the convention center but down at what used to be called the boston garden. it's now called the t.d. garden. i have not been able to find out what they're hearing. they did have high hopes fairly early in the evening those counties in northern virginia they would have a clear sense of romney doing expwl, therefore, a very good omen for the evening. >> ifill: i'll really curious about one thing today, mitt romney spent part of his day in two cities in which he is not expected to do well, cleveland and pittsburgh, two industrial cities heavily democratic. was that to keep him busy? was he trying to keep president obama's vote down? what was the point?

>> warner: there are reports -- and i haven't been able to confirm this by someone close enough to romney-- in fact he wanted to stay busy. but also they really believe-- they know president obama was going to do better in those two cities in pittsburgh and cleveland, the suburbs of them, even, than mitt romney was but they wanted to cut into that lead. and finally, i think there is something about romney himself on the plane on the way back, he said to reporters, you know, "everything we've got now is on the field. we've left nothing in the locker room." and i think there was just a sense that they didn't want to leave anything in the locker room. and that explains the late trip. >> ifill: okay, margaret. thank you so much for standing in the cold for us. we'll be talking to you all night. >> woodruff: as we know, it's not just the presidency that's at stake tonight. 33 u.s. senate seats, a third of the senate is up for grabs as well. 23 of those seats are currently held by democrats, 10 of them by

republicans. in order to take control of the senate, the republicans need a net gain of three or four seats, depending on who wins the presidency. here is what the associated press is project the so far this evening. in the state of delaware, that tom carper has won reelection. >> ifill: and in the state of florida, bill nelson, who actually had been running against connie mack, the son and grandson of the famous connie mack, he has also won reelection, even though connie mack had been making a late surge. >> woodruff: both of those democrats. in the state of maryland, another return. this is senator ben cardin, returning for his second term. >> ifill: and in rhode island, sheldon whitehouse, a good friend of the president's, returning to the senate. >> woodruff: here we have a republican in the state of tennessee, bob corker re-elected to a second term. >> ifill: jeffrey brown will be watching the congressional races for us all night. jeff, here's your first pass. >> brown: thank you, and with

me is christina bellantoni and stuart rothenberg, editor of the rothen berg report to help sort through the senate races. let's start with florida, christina. >> none of the races that gwen and judy just mentioned called by the associated press were a big surprise but florida was an opportunity for the republicans. they thought this could end up being close. for a long time, senator nelson has been able to maintain his advantage there, even as the president and mitt romney are basically tied, in part pause he's as you been able to win the conservative democrats in the panhandle area of florida. but also this is just a state that has been so focused on for the presidential race, it hasn't gotten as much attention. >> brown: does it tell us much about the presidential race? >> i don't think so. if you talk to republicanned inners about connie mack's campaign, you get a load of criticism. he didn't raise money. he entered the race late. he didn't put together the kind of campaign that should have allowed him to win.

bell nelson-- he is elected now to his third term. it's interesting. remember who he beat last time, catherine harris, an explosive figure in the republican party-- >> brown: that's the second time we heard her name tonight. >> and connie mack, the grandson of the former baseball manager and owner, ran an equally unimpressive campaign. bill nelson is living right in florida. >> brown: you agree on the other races, no surprises? >> let's remember. this is olympia snowe's seat-- >> brown: you're talking about maine now. >> who announced her retirement very late in the cycle, disappointing republicans. this is an interesting race. it's a three-way waits. the person who won is apparently angus king, a former two-term independent governor and democrats got behind him. they basically didn't support the democratic nominee. >> brown: explain, he's running as an independent-- >> he has not said who he will caucus with when he come comes o

d.c., and that'ss how you get committee assignments. he played this very cool, but democrats decided he was the best chance of winning. they were worried about a split vote. >> if the democrats are able to maintain their slim majority, angus king is going to maybe matter a little bit more, a little bit less, depending on how many other races. >> brown: there are others that have closed because we have cannot call them, one is massachusetts. we talked about massachusetts earlier. tell us about connecticut. >> this is the republican, linda mcmahon, ran two years ago, spent $50 million. this year he spent another, i don't, 30-plus-million dollars. this is an open seat. the democrat is chris murphy. initially nobody gave mcmahon a chance. she was even, maybe a few point ahead, but the raise has opened up against for murphy. >> this has been fascinating the

way she has run her campaign. they were handing out flyers and pamphlets at voting places vote for barack obama and linda mcmahon. you saw that in many cases, some of the tactics scott brown is using in massachusetts trying to tie democratic voters to the republican candidate, and we'll see how that is going. >> it's a hard state for any republican. >> brown: and missouri is another one we're watching. >> senator claire mccaskill is one of the democrats playing defense. she was elected in the 2006 wave when the democrats were able to take over the senate. she is running against todd akin, that seemed to be his to lose for a long time-- >> brown: that's another theme we have been talking about. >> it's looking close. we don't have any returns yet but this is a state that is no longer competitive on the presidential level so this is the race most people are paying attention to there. it's a conservative state. it's a lot closer than democrats are comfortable with at this point. >> republicans, though, want the todd akin to drop out of the

race after the controversy. >> brown: he got a lot of pressure to do that. >> absolutely, across the board, and he refused, and a lot of republicans believe that single act cost them the seat. claire mccaskill has been-- was behind in all the polls until akin's comment about the rape, legitimate rape, and it probably has turned the race around. >> brown: stu, christina, thanks. back to you guys. >> woodruff: i guess listening to them remind us for the republicans-- and we've been discussing this. i know david and mark brought it up-- several of the senate races turned out to be disappointments. and on the house side it's the democrats who are disappointed because they thought they were going to do better and right now the projection is it's going to be tough to pick up seats in the house. >> ifill: it's a reminder no matter how you plan these things it comes down to who the candidate is. i would like to turn to our historians sitting there over-- michael beschloss, and richard norton smith. this idea of independents and

self-financed candidates has completely changed the way we expect candidates to rise through the ranks, hasn't it? >> it has. because they used to have to go through a party organization, something that has almost become and i think in most states compared to what it used to be. the interesting thing is on the presidential level. there's a huge opening for an independent candidate who can raise a lot of money. early 1992, ross pero was essentially going to be elected president of this country over bill clinton and george h.w. bush from about february until june. so the amazing thing, i think, is in this day in which money is so important, we have not seen a-- not a third party candidate, an independent candidate who is viable run against the republicans and democrats and do very well. >> woodruff: it's interesting, isn't it, richard, in terms of recent history, it's not just ross pero who ran a couple of times. ralph nader. many people believe he was very much a factor in the result resn

2000. you go all the way back to 19 auto, john anderson. and throughout history-- we may not remember all their names but they have played a role in american politics. >> absolute. you can go back to 1968 and george wallace and his american independent party. and the fact of the matter is, richard nixon, once elected, adopted-- i remember-- the nixon southern strategy. it was designed, as much as anything else, to coopt to bring the southern democrats, conservatives, into the republican party. if not formally, then in practical terms. and, indeed, the nixon landed slide in 1972 was built very largely around the success of that strategy. independents and third-party candidates do best when they have a cause. >> that's right. >> to arouse passion. enough passion to draw people away from their conventional political loyalties. and it's a curious thing.

in some ways, you would have thought this year with the concern people are voicing about the deficit, about the course of the economy, you would have thought that there was a political climate that might be conducive to a third party. >> ifill: that's something mark actually alluded to earlier, michael. and i'm really curious about that as well. are we just more in love with the idea of an independent candidate in angus king or bernie sanders than we are with the reality? >> we love the idea of someone who seems to be the underdog climbing in and going over the approved candidates. but i think richard is making a very interesting point which is one thing that third-party candidates have done throughout history at the presidential level is they bring an issue up that the two parties are not dealing with, and it becomes central on the agenda. 1992, the reason why ross pero ultimately got 19% of the vote that fall was that he was the one who was saying that neither the republicans nor democrats were speaking seriously about

the deficit. i think if pero had not gotten 19 ps, you would not have seen bill clinton the next year as such an enormous deficit hawk. >> woodruff: in a year-- i can say this to both of you, to michael and richard, in a year when the parties seemed so polarized-- certainly the candidates started out most polarized. they didn't end up that way. mitt romney trying to talk at the end of the campaign about appealing to moderates and trying to talk a lot about how hoe can reach across the aisle, in a year like this, though, for the most part, where there's opinion this sharp divide between the two parties, it's almost as if all the oxygen was sucked out of the room. there wasn't room for another. >> that's very well put. and just by the nature, moderation and passion, anger, loyalty, whatever moderates by their very nature try to look for the rational in a political process. that is increase believe irrational. >> woodruff: we are going to

keep on talking to the two of you all night. michael, richard. >> thanks, judy, you bet. >> woodruff: two networks have projected new jersey for president obama, a state that was hard hit by hurricane sandy and there were all sorts of questions, gwen, about whether enough people-- people who wanted to vote would be able to vote. we saw the terrible devastation there along the shoreline. but the results are in, at least as much as it takes for the associated press to make a call. >> ifill: i have read more amazing stories today about pregnant women who were on the way to the hospital who decided to vote. people who stood in the dark in lines in order to vote. in spite of what happened with that hurricane. >> woodruff: comparisons being made to hurricane katrina, not only new jersey and new york. we also want to say this brings the electoral college projected total at this point-- it's early in the evening-- to 79 electoral votes for president obama 82 electoral vote for governor romney. we know we need 270-- they need 270 in order to become

president. >> ifill: of course we have to talk about new jersey because david and mark, chris christie, the governor of the new jersey, royaled the waters a little bit this week by actually having kind things to say about president obama, not that that accountedly the outcome in new jersey, a deeply blue state, but i wonder whether we're watching chris christie more closely. >> i think he did it for severe reasons. his state got whalloped. he was emotionally drawn as anybody in those circumstances. i don't think he was thinking of his future political process. i do think sandy had a political impact. i think the exit polls give some suggestion of that. and partly because they saw the president being effective, but partly because they saw him working with a republican. and we do know the people who decide late who they're going to vote for love bipartisanship. i do think sandy had an effect glaen glen it explains why mitt romney spent so much time talking about bipartisanship at the end? >> i wanted to say i agreed with david. misunderstood in this whole equation is the pride people of

new jersey, a much-beleaguered, oftentimes a disparaged state, take in the jersey shore. it is an icon. it's a connection point for so many of them. the towns they go to. and the idea that devastation, i think chris christie was responding at a very human level, a very understandable level. obviously, consciously helpful to his own reelection. that couldn't have been totally out of his mind in a blue state to be seen with a-- but-- democratic president. but he was interested in helping and bailing out the people of new jersey. and i think if there's a call going into the white house, one from deval patrick and one from mike bloomberg and andrew cuomo and chris christie, the other three will be put on hold and chris christie will be put through. >> woodruff: he was asked was he working with president obama and he was gushing about how exciting it was to ride on marine one with the president. and he was asked about, well,

governor romney was supposed to come have a photo opportunity with you. and he said i don't give a damn about politics at this point. but this to me raises again this question about politics and partisan identification. this is a state that's vote-- nobody is prized new jersey went democratic, but it has a republican governor. >> well, he was elected in the beginning of the 2010 surge, the year before, actually. but his election was-- and the governor's election in virginia-- were the two early indicator of what was about to happen in 2010, that there was upset at obamacare and that was going to spill out. it's going to be tough for him to win reelection. although i do think he's popular, especially after this. it's a sign a lot of these states, they do have independent voters, and it should be said-- something margaret said earlier in the night i think is worth underlining, what we're looking at right now, so far from the exit polls, the polls are accurate about who is coming out. the democrats are having some registration advantage--

>> ifill: i just want to tell everybody the associate press has called arkansas, bill clinton's home state, two networks have called arkansas for mitt romney. and, of course, we expected that, but on the other hand, we also remember the years when arkansas was a slam-dunk for the democrats, no more. >> second worst state for barack obama in seek the nomination in 2008. on new jersey, the concern that democrats have about new jersey and the entire sandy area that was hit so hard is the popular vote. the fact they get the electoral vote. they got big bulges and ran up their national totals out of new york and new jersey, connecticut, in the past. a-- >> woodruff: and there was real concern. there still is. >> we don't know if he's getting 65 pfers a 30% turnout or 55% of a 60% turnout. that's going to make a difference in the overall total. >> ifill: you want to finish

your thought? >> sure, i still remember it. so the-- so far the exit polls suggest the democrats are more reg-- more registered are showing up at the polls than registered republicans in certain key areas which would vindicate the polls coming in today which is good for president obama. if romney is going to overcome that registration advantage he has to do better than expected among independents. he probably the win independents. mark ret used the phrase low double digits. that's the only hope if the registration advantage for the democrats holds. >> woodruff: that calls to mind the obama strategy, much criticized, going after the base. if the democratic base is turning out in significant or slightly better than expected numbers, that at least at this early stage could suggest the obama strategy was one that's working. >> ifill: we're going to turn to hari sreenivasan who has been-- who will be talk throughout the night with our public media colleagues and reporters in battleground

states. let's go to him now. >> we're going to take a deeper look at ohio, the most belled weather of battleground state with catherine casser from ohio public television. >> you'll forgive me if i look down watching the returns as they're coming into the secretary of state's office right now. >> i totally understand. for the national audience-- obviously, we're still waiting for the results -- let's take a look at the 2008 results. we'll take a look at the maps so the people at home can follow along. what areas of the state do you expect to be the most contested ones? what are you watching? >> i think the area that i'm going to be watching most is the area around columbus, franklin county. and it's not just for a selfish purpose. i really think that is going to be a county that could swing either way. we've seen that in congressional races and we've seen that in presidential races in the past. a lot of folks have looked at southwest ohio where cincinnati is. it's expected president obama

will take cincinnati. i think franklin county could be where a lot of action is tonight. i can oaga county, where cleveland is, that's going to be heavily democratic. in fact, all of northern ohio is going to be heavily democratic. western ohio, alongside i-75, which leads up to michigan, that's going to be strong republican turnout. and of course we have the rural areas. those are going to be interesting to watch as well. >> one of the things we heard so much in the campaigns is it's a story about unemployment, and especially in ohio. i've pulled up the unemployment numbers, according to the bureau of labor statistics as of september 2012, and on the lower half of the state you see pretty bad unemployment, 9.4% in morgan county, perhaps 11.5% in pike county. it gets a little bit better in the northwest. what's story that the candidates are selling? and is it working? >> well, in appalachian, ohio, where you're seeing a lot of

areas of unemployment in southeast ohio, that's been interesting territory because it's coal country. it went for our previous democratic governor ted stricted land very strongly but mitt romney has been courting that very strongly as well. it's a small representation of the overall population of ohio. when you look at northern ohio, you have a lot more population centers there and that's where you get the auto bailout or auto rescue involved. president obama has not missed an opportunity to talk about the auto bailout when he's been here. >> when we look at the change in unemployment number numbers from january 2009 to january of this year, all the blue is where unemployment decreased. it's still bad but it got a lot better. >> we're now below the national average in terms of joblessness. o. is usually one of the first states to go into a recession and one of the last to come out. we are doing fairly well and you have politicians trying to take credit instead placing the blame

for it it it it it. you have the republicans saying it is the rbs who took over in 2010, but you have democrats who point to the fact that joblessness was going down before the republicans took over in 2010. they're saying it is president obama responsible. >> thanks so much for joining us. >> ifill: and we have a competitive senate race to call right now. it's being projected that chris murphy, congressman chris murphy, has beat linda mcmahon, the world wrestling executive, her second try at the senate seat. she spent $41 million of her own money this time. he spent about $9 million, and she's the democrat who we talked with-- christina had talked about earlier-- had tied herself very closely to barack obama. but it looks like he has won by a significant enough margin that that race is being called for the democrats.

>> woodruff: again, this is a projection based on exit interviews with voters leaving the polling places in key precincts. as you can see, only 3% of the raw vote is in as people look at the discrepancy there. connecticut,un, we talked about how this is a state on the one hand you would think a democrat could do well there, but she's a woman. she moderated her positions and she put a lot of money into it. >> she sure did, and she ran an entirely different campaign from the campaign she won last time. this was a sochter, more woman campaign. last time she ran as a business success and told her personal story this time and was competitive. but chris enoughy, the democratic congressman, spent, as gwen mentions, $9 million-- not of his own money because he doesn't have it-- but he did win and it's a pickup for the democrats in the sense it was held by an independent, joe lieberman. >> the conventional view is if

she had won this campaign last time she probably would have run it. it's to you to run against a national tide in a strong state red or blue. >> ifill: even with that much money. we have talked ad nausim about money and how it's corrupting thiks. >> i tend to think money is overrated. you have to get to a certain threshold to introduce yourself to people with money. after that threshold, i think you're just making the rubber bounce very quickly. >> disagree completely. i will say this-- money takes issues off the table. money comes-- money is not given altruistically in political campaigns. it might be somebody who believes in peace. or somebody who believes in green life. but they always have-- >> ifill: what if it comes from your own pocket? >> they have a policy angle. >> we're not disagree. i'm saying does it change the

way policy works and policy making, absolutely. how much do the extra 30, 40 ads a night change votes i'm skeptical. >> when barack obama outspent john mccain five to one in indiana in 2008, that gives you an advantage. it really does. it made that state competitive which wouldn't have been or has not been historically. >> woodruff: i have to ask both of you, if it doesn't make a difference then why are millions and billions of dollars being spent? >> well, because they don't know. and sometimes it does. as i said earlier in the night, i do think the early ads that obama ran against romney on bain, i think that sometimes made a difference. but my basic view is, politicians are insecure. they want to feel they can control their own destiny, so they raise all the money they can thinking i'll just spend it. they believe in it. the consultants certainly believe in it because that's how they get paid. the more you spend, the more they make. if you're sitting in a swing state in ohio and every single ad for 24 hours a day is a

political ad, are you really contingent me those ads are making a difference in how people vote? >> ifill: we will see a test of that when we see what happens in the most expensive senate race between scob brown and elizabeth wairn. we have seen in some of the early exit polls, the voter surveys, that more democrats are voting, but more independents are backing mitt romney. now, what does that tell us? anything? well, it has to be a source of concern because the numbers i've seen run like-- >> woodruff: a concern to president obama. >> to president obama and the democrats. 39% of the the turnout, one state exit poll was-- i think it was ohio, was republican. so that leaves a good chunk for republicans, if i'm not mistaken-- independents, that would be 31%. if you're get a thirpd and

winning a third as margaret projected by low double digits, i mean, that's a major chunk. you've got to run up the score. >> it should be said most independents are fibbers. they're not really independent-- they vote for the same party again and again. and a lot of the people who call themselves independents drifted away from the republican party because they thought it was going too conservative but when push comes to shove they vote republican. >> the foalz have shown a big drop-off in the number of independents as people identify with one party or the other. >> ifill: it's not just the presidential and senate races it's the key house races. we'll go to jeff brown to talk about that. >> brown: i'm with stu and christina. stu has a bit of news. >> two naeks have called the race in the kentucky, a democrat seat gone down in defeat. the big issue there-- coal,

c-o-a-l. this is not coal country in lexington, but a lot of coal country east of of there. and this issue has been a big issue nationally in the presidential and also in some congressional races. >> brown: beyond this particular state? >> yeah. in pennsylvania, in ohio, even in north dakota, where fracking is going on. coal has become a big issue. this is ben chandler who appears to be the first incumbent this year to go down in defeat. >> brown: one of the things we're all looking at is exit polls through the night. and we have some new looks at some national exit polls, christina. one is about the question of whether things are getting better. this is just a very interesting number, you have four in 10 saying the economy is getting better, three in 10 say it's getting worse, three in 10 saying it's the same. thies a mixed bag, particularly when the economy is what's driving people to show up at the polls that says quite a bit

about what how divided the electorate is. from a state perspective, the auto bailout of the voters showing up in ohio today, 59 to 36% approve of the auto bailout. and this has become, just like coal in some of these issues, the auto bailout has become a central fight between mitt romney and president obama, and the president's team felt lieb the auto bailout could help them in ohio, which is obviously one of the key battleground states. >> what do you make of that, stu? >> on the one part, yes, the economy is getting better but who is responsible for us being in the deep hole. and i think the president did a very good job saying after four years it was a difficult job to turn around and in ohio i think that has to be important that the bailout is seen as a popular thing. >> brown: in fact, in these results it says the voters were less likely to blame president barack obama for the economic troubles. , however, than to point his

finger at the his predecessor, george w. bush. that goes to your question. >> exactly. i can still picture bill clinton at the democratic convention, talking to those in attendance and on tv saying, "even i could not have turned around this economy in the past four years." >> that's the message the president has been taking to the campaign trails and showing up in the presidential ads running in heavy rotations. >> brown: we have one other exit poll, which concerns the question of health care. let's look at that one. >> yeah, this is fascinating because it basically shows a completely divided electorate. you have 50% of the country says yes, we should repeal-- quote, unquote-- obamacare, which obviously the supreme court upheld earlier this year, and 43% say let's keep. that's an issue you have seen not only in the presidential race but the key senate races. senator mccaskill, she voted for the health care bill. jon tester, a democrat in montana, another very closely

watched race we're looking at, voted for health care, and that's the central theme of these races. >> brown: what do you see? >> i think republicans hope this will be a silver bull net many races. i think the democrats did a decent job crawling back on health care when the public at one point was very negative and in fact the democrats tried to turn this argument over to medicare and away from the balm health care bill. >> brown: you think 50% looks okay to democrats? >> i think democrats are glad this did not turn out to be a decisive issue. now, republicans are going to say, look, there are more of us than them, but it was a closer all than republicans would like. >> woodruff: and we've been talking about virginia. the polls closed in virginia at 7:00 eastern, but right now, it's, what, 8:45 eastern, and they still are not reporting results because of very long lines. our own hari has another report right now. he's been talking to someone in the battled ground state. hari.

>> one of the most interesting and important races to be watching tonight is of course the state of virginia. it's a battled ground. we checked in once already. we're joining once again by cathy lewis. we were joking a little bit the lines were long this morning when you and i went to the polls but this is turning into a newsworthy event. >> it's become a little bit of an issue. there are 44 precincts who are have reported so far but that may not even tell part of the tale. there is a precinct in chesapeake where they were waiting almost five hours to vote,it same precinct where they had big problems in 2008. the state board of elections, which anticipated releasing results around 7:00-- or after 7:00-- when the polls closed decide to delay it saying there are too many people still in line. we can't release these results because we don't want to influence the folks who are still standing in line. apparently, this is a problem in various areas around the state so they delayed releasing any

results until 8:00, and we do have about 44% of precincts reporting now, but still very early because of these very pop lis area where's some of the difficulties are, a loat in northern virginia and then of course some here in hampton roads as well. >> traditionally you have that sort of pre-office rush, people trying to sneak in before they get to work. you have a little bit of a lunchtime thing. apparently a lot of people waited, "all right, i'll go after work." this is serious. five hours. it's amazing that people-- and it's inspiring that people are willing to wait that long. >> it really is. the story of the women who waited five hours-- and i have to credit my colleagues at the "virginia pilot, showed up at the polls at 11:00 this morning and was finally just a couple of minutes before 4:00 getting to vote. and she just stayed there the whole time. this is the story we're hearing from around the state is people don't want to get out of line. they definitely want to get the job done. i think a lot of people probably drove by these polls early this morning on their way to work and the lines were very, very long.

and they said well, i'll take care of it later and now we are later. >> cathy lewis from whro, thank you very much for joining us. >> my bangladesh. >> ifill: what's happening in virginia is fascinating. apparently they're delaying again and again and again the results. is it possible it's not going to be ohio, it's going to be virginia? >> it could be or florida. as i said, you have to go from florida and virginia to of before you get to ohio. and so, maybe we'll have a weird mess-up in virginia. i've been looking at the florida results and i have to say just looking at what's rolling in-- they have some things rolling in-- it looks a little better for romney than i would have thought. he's up a little. they haven't reported the panhandle which is where he's going to do very well. if you lookt numbers coming in there that looks okay for romney. >> ifill: he has to win florida. >> and i think he has to win virginia just to get to ohio. >> virginia is a fascinating state. john mccain got 8,000 vote more than george bush did four years earlier this 2008.

george bush carried it twice, and republicans carried it in the 10 preceding april prtial elects, all the way back to lyndon johnson. but president obama got 505,000 more votes than john kerry. cathy was talking about hampton roads. that's where he ran it up. and in northern virginia, in the suburbs, he won 59-40. if the long lines are in hampton roadroads and northern virginias probably a good sign for president obama. >> the crucial thing is loudeb county. if you fly into dulles airport, it's out there in the suburbs, and generally, until 2008, the further out in the suburbs you go the more republicans you get. you have counties like louden county, douglas county, colorado, traditionally very good republican counties. that's the sort of place, if the president is going to lose will be in the far-lung ex-urban area. >> woodruff: these people in

line does that tell us turnout-- we don't know yet-- does that mean it's a much bigger turnout or they just weren't prepared for the volume of people coming-- >> ifill: it should be said there's a hot senate race as well in virginia. >> absolutely. >> ifill: it's unclear if there's a connection to the presidential race between tim kaine, and tim allen, both former governors and whether it will have an effect on the presidential race. >> leading up to the election day, kaine has been leading. he's more moderate than obama so he should do well there. eb who lives in virginia knows, they're heavily into the election. >> woodruff: and it's interesting, in a situation like that, where you think, okay, as the presidential raise of race goes, does that necessarily mean tim kaie, the democrat, is anything to do well, and that wasn't necessarily seen -- >> the rule of thumb-- you have two well-known candidates in alan and kaine.

elizabeth warren certainly wasn't as well known in massachusetts. i think her fate was probably tied more closely to the president's. ( phone ringing ). >> woodruff: he forgot of got to turn off his telephone. >> i'm sorry, elizabeth. are you well known. the rule of thumb among democrats is president kaine could take a 2% president obama loss and still survive. >> woodruff: it's interesting, they were showing 37% of the precincts reporting. i think it said-- here it is again, that george allen is up, but, again, we don't know where these votes are, and it's early. >> it tend to be the central part of the state where the votes come in most quickly. >> ifill: it's almost become a cliche when we talk about the economy being a driving issue. when stu was talking about health care, did you expect that would be a bigger issue that would be debated more than broadly in this election? >> yes, from both side. as we said, the romney-ryan

medicare plan didn't bite as much. obamacare, sort of broke sort of even. somehow that just faded away, i guess overcome by the economy, and they were stort of mutually assured destruction. neither party wanted to go there. >> it was an awkward issue for governor romney. it was the centerpeerks the touched stone and keystone of his entire public career. he had one elected term in massachusetts. that was all he had. that was his only public record-- >> ifill: i saw a lovely detail on our election special last weekend on pbs, his formal portrait hanging in the massachusetts state house, if you look closely his hand is on a copy of the necessary health care law. >> i think it became awkward for him. whereas, another republican candidate might have felt more liberated to make the case against the the president-- >> one quick thing on what is going to happen tomorrow, the fiscal cliff, especially in

virginia. two giant industries are competing against each other. if you're in the health care industry, you want the country to fall off the fiscal cliff because you start cutting defense dollars. if you're in the defense industry, you want to cut a deal so they'll cut health care. it's interesting how preelection you see the two industries lobbying. >> woodruff: we're not even through the night and i had a feeling we were going to start talking about the fiscal cliff. >> ifill: we're going to take a break, so mark can answer his phone and we'll be right back with more coverage of the 2012 election here on pbs.

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the following is a pbs election 2012 special event. >> woodruff: good evening once again. welcome back to this pbs newshour special coverage of election night 2012. i'm judy wood rough. the story so far tonight in the presidential race, president obama has won the traditionally democratic northeast. mitt romney has swept the south. but not a single major battle ground state has yet been called. >> ifill: and i'm gwen i've. it's 9:00 eastern time. the polls have now closed in washington d.c. and in 40 states including 15 which just closed moments ago.

we're going to talk to mark shields and david brooks who are joining us here again as they have all night about what we have seen so far tonight. we don't have any trends yet that are emerging, do we? except we don't know. >> that's not a trend. i guess the only thing again what you do at this time of night, you see 50, 40% in some of the swing states especially florida and virginia. so you look at where they're coming in, where the vote hasn't yet come in. are they democratic or republican areas? the only sort of trend i see is in florida where i do think romney looks okay. i wouldn't say he's got it locked up or anything but there's some positive news for him coming out of florida. >> woodruff: at this point, you know, we're all, you hear us referring too the exit polls often. that's really what in all these battle grounds states that's what we're depending on because the raw numbers... these states will be close. we won't know the final numbers for maybe hours. so what we're looking at are projects. speaking of which polls have

just closed in i think it's 14 states. >> ifill: we now are ready to make a call. we have a projection in kansas for mitt romney. >> woodruff: that's right. a state we expected to go republican. louisiana, another southern state going for the republican governor romney. >> ifill: the third state is in michigan which of course is mitt romney's, one of his home states but in this case where he was raised his birth place. his father was governor of michigan. even though there wasn't a real big battle in michigan, it was certainly won he would have loved to have closed that gap. >> woodruff: the romney campaign spent some money advertising. >> it's fair to say that one piece in the "new york times," a vanity piece in the "new york times" let detroit go bankrupt foreclosed his chances in michigan. >> woodruff: what does it say though that the romney people were saying they thought michigan might be in play? and here now it's been called just as the polls close in the

state of michigan. >> they were spinning. maybe it was a fantasy that it was in play. but if michigan was in play all sorts of things would be in play. that was always going to be a challenge. if things had, you know, in the stretch states, to use college add migs vocabulary, pennsylvania i've always thought was their best stretch state. to win that state. michigan was always going to be tough. if he was going to win any of his home states, utah, i think he's going to win utah. >> ifill: you're out on a limb here. >> woodruff: does that tell us anything about ohio? michigan, what is it one in every five jobs is related to the auto industry. in ohio it's one in every eight jobs much we've talked about ohio. why wouldn't the president doing well in michigan translate to his doing well in ohio. >> michigan is historically more democratic than ohio. ohio has been less democratic, more republican than the nation. so really the contradiction in 2012 is that president obama has been running so well in ohio and

i think the auto bailout really... >> and the jobs just going down. the jobs going up, it's the auto belt and the shell gas belt. >> ifill: five more network projections now to share with you. we're going to go right to them. first is in nebraska for mitt romney. >> woodruff: a republican state. the state of new york another state hit hard by hurricane sandy going for president obama. traditionally blue state. >> ifill: north dakota going' for mitt romney. they seem to be splitting the red and blue pretty evenly. >> woodruff: and south dakota going republican. no surprise either one of those. >> ifill: and the big state of texas which has an interesting senate race going on but obviously nobody campaigned in texas this time because both mitt romney and barack obama knew mitt romney had the edge. >> woodruff: we think that senate race is probably going to be called pretty early too. >> ifill: we'll see. woodruff: we'll see what happens. back to the point about michigan, ohio, they're both industrial states.

>> but remember ohio has cincinatti. it goes further south basically. so you've got that. ohio is an extremely complicated state. the cliche about ohio is there are five separate ohios. there's columbus, more catholics up in the north. but it stretches south. >> woodruff: do you see anything else in those numbers? are are we about to make another call? wyoming, okay. we're calling wyoming for mitt romney. the home of dick cheney. i think this is the state that president obama had the worst showing in, in 2008 if i'm not mistaken. so this is not also not a surprise. >> ifill: also dick cheney's state. >> woodruff: we're going to look it up right now. any of those results say anything? >> population density does matter. you go to a dense area you're probably in a democratic area. you go to a sparse area -- and wyoming certainly qualifies -- you're probably in a republican area.

>> woodruff: it's beautiful out there. >> it certainly is. their electoral vote should count for more. >> ifill: so is new york. we were talking earlier and we were talking to margaret about exactly why mitt romney would spend his day today in a dense area. i saw he gave an interview to a radio station where he basically said i don't want to sit around. i didn't want to lose this race by a couple hundred votes and then discover i didn't do everything i could. >> president obama went and played basketball. i would have recommended that for mitt romney. do more jet skiing or whatever he likes to do. >> woodruff: speaking of margaret warner we'll go back to boston and to our own margaret who is once again outside romney headquarters. margaret. >> warner: hi, judy. i am here with rochelle cohen who is editor of the editorial page of the "boston herald" and a conservative columnist and a voice in conservative circles. thanks for joining us. >> a pleasure on this chilly boston night. >> warner: absolutely. you have been watching the whole national picture. you wrote the editorial

endorsing mitt romney for the "boston herald." what do the returns we've seen tell you nationally about how he's doing. >> quite frankly precious little until now. we have a good sense that i think he'll take florida and that will be critical. we're waiting for virginia like the rest of the world, and we understand the people are still waiting in line. that may not happen for a while. but we kind of have a good feeling about this, that this is something that is do-able just in terms of the battle grounds states we've been watching them as you and everyone has been doing for weeks now, but we sense a certain momentum. so massachusetts notwithstanding -- and we all know as massachusetts goes, so goes vermont and whatever. speaking of massachusetts though you have a very interesting senate race here. incumbent scott brown against this sort of populist activist

elizabeth warren. how does that race look to you now? the polls have closed some time ago. >> well, the polls have closed but we understand that as of at least 20, 30 minutes ago people were still waiting in line so it's not over until it's over but there is a certain sense of optimism we're told in the warren campaign. >> warner: justified, do you think? >> quite possibly. i know there were amazing early returns out in the suburbs that were brown's strongholds. but we don't know what that is going to stand and there were also huge turnouts in boston. i'm a boston voter. i know how long i had to wait in line this morning. i have lots of company. >> warner: what was the dynamic here? i mean, scott brown, we were talking to governor... former governor weld earlier. he pointed out that scott brown, he said, has been quite bipartisan. he really tried to run on that here. why is he... he was considered a

popular incumbent and was ahead for a lot of this race. why is he even having a difficult time? >> personally very popular. i think this is a guy who is very, very tough to dislike. great family guy. always out there at events that you would never expect him to be at. just would turn up, as we say in boston, at the opening of an envelope. he was beloved for all of those reasons. but when it comes right down to it, barack obama was expected, as i'm sure he did tonight, to sweep this state. he may have well swept elizabeth warren in with him. >> warner: was scott brown at all hurt or was he dragged down by his identification with the national party and the argument i gather that elizabeth warren made which was, you know, a vote for scott brown is a vote for the republican leadership in the senate? >> she certainly gave it her best shot at nationalizing this race. that was really her... it was

her best shot at defeating him and, if at the end of the day she has defeated him, i think that's probably the way in which she did with a lot of help from barack obama. >> warner: as someone who follows... i mean, is very involved in sort of the evolution of the republican party and conservative thought, how different... oh, you know what? i have to interrupt us and go from here and shelly cohen, thank you very much. >> good to be with you. warner: back to you, judy. ifill: i'll take it. that's really interesting what she was saying about what happened in the massachusetts senate race. hari sreenivasan has been doing a little reporting on what's happening in another big battle ground state. that's in missouri. hari. >> sreenivasan: one of the states we want to check in on tonight is the state of missouri. it made the news earlier this year because of an important senate race between todd akin and claire mccaskill. joining me now is a reporter from 9 network. thanks for being with us.

>> thanks. sreenivasan: let's talk a little bit about that first senate race. it's one of the important senate races and has a lot of eyes on it. >> missouri is expected to go for romney. its ten electoral votes. originally in this senate race the incumbent democrat was being called the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the country. a lot of republicans were chalking this one up as a victory. we had a primary race. congressman todd akin a conservative christian republican won that primary. a lot of republican leaders weren't happy with that. then of course we had the famous legitimate rape comment which went viral. republican party leaders tried to get him to withdraw. he refused. he stood firm which he does. he's a man who is true to his word and believes in what he believes. today on election day, claire mccaskill has a much better shot at keeping that senate seat than she would have before that august primary. >> sreenivasan: i also want to ask you about the demographics of your state. what you're looking for, who needs to turn out the vote

where. >> yeah, you know, we used to be the bellwether state because missouri is north, south, east and west. we have two major metropolitan areas on either side of the state. everything in between is called out state missouri. republicans over the years have gotten very, very good at turning out the rural vote especially the evangelical christian vote. they were always there. they just weren't voting in the numbers that they are now. for romney getting that vote out is important. the democrats need to get the votes as they always do in the city in st. louis and in kansas city. in the sub urban areas that's the real battle ground. that's where they're fighting it out. >> sreenivasan: thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. woodruff: right now we'll go back to chicago where the obama team is watching the results and to our own ray suarez. ray, i know you've been talking to a number of the campaign staff. some of the strategists there. you were telling us that they

are interested in what they're finding about the diversity of the electorate so far this year. >> suarez: that's right, gwen. they say that if they can turn out a pattern of voters not just a lot of voters but who votes, that's similar to the one that came out in 2008 they're looking very good for a win tonight. so far, they're saying that the electorate resembles the one in 2008 more than it does from the wavy leches from the republicans in 2010 but also more than it resembles the turnout in 2004 when george w. bush beat john kerry. why is that important? well, the modern state of the art is not only about pure turnout, driving up the numbers but who is coming out? understanding what communities, being targeted gets you what kind of result. when they look at places like charlottesville, a college town in central virginia, when they look at specific counties in florida, they like what they're seeing in the exit polling.

now naturally nobody is ready to call anything in some of these very big states. and things are still very close. but when they look at the shape of the electorate, notably people 18 to 29 and latinos in particular, they're liking what they see. they say that they're confident in a good night. >> ifill: ray, we've talked a lot about the latino vote and other demographic groups but i wonder if we have been missing a demographic group you've been talking about here and that's young minority and even college-educated voters who are being underneath the radar on radio or online in ways that the television ads we see which target different groups might not. >> suarez: you know, for a long time there's been a dueling model argument between the two campaigns. the obama campaign has said all along that they were underpolling among people 18 to 29 especially urban and minority voters 18 to 29 because they're

much more cell phone dependent than the rest of the population. with so much polling still being done by hard-wired land line phones they felt that there was a missing population. and now what we're seeing on election day will either prove or disprove that argument. >> woodruff: ray, as you talk to the obama people -- this is judy now -- are they giving specifics or are they just giving general friends? are they sharing? what kind of detailed information are they sharing with reporters? what is is that noise in the background? >> well, they've finally started to let the crowds in. there's an enormous... there's a sea of people out to the end of the hall. so every time a result that looks good for the president is put up on some of the display screens around this vast hall, a shout goes up from the partisans. they're not divulging specific information.

i think with so many big states still out, they are being very cautious about being too over confident about places like florida, like virginia, like ohio. we just say that their modeling is coming true. that's giving them confidence. >> woodruff: we've just learned here that two television networks have projected pennsylvania for president obama. in fact, yes, we are able to show it here. that may well be what the crowd is reacting to there. >> suarez: i couldn't see the screen that they were looking at. also, you know, i don't want to get ahead of ourselves here, right? >> ifill: we don't want that. ray, i am curious because, you know, pennsylvania had become a discussion in the last week or so. in fact, mitt romney was there today. there was some talk about closing the gap in pennsylvania. that doesn't sound like something that the obama folks ever took seriously. >> suarez: you're getting down to the dueling modeling.

when mitt romney went very, very late in the game to pennsylvania, the obama campaign insisted it was, in their words, a tran tick attempt to broaden the map because the romney internals were showing they were losing in places that they needed to win. they had to try to peel off states wherever they could. again the romney camp, of course, denied that. but pennsylvania is one of those places where they were trying to play and the obama campaign insisted all along they had no shot. >> ifill: ray suarez in chicago with us tonight. we'll be checking back with you in a little while. >> suarez: talk to you later. ifill: another electoral college update. mitt romney has now according to our estimate a projected total of 124 electoral votes. and president obama has 144 votes. that's of course the race called by the associated press or two of the networks. >> woodruff: that's reflecting the results we saw coming in from new jersey and new york. these are high electoral vote states for the president.

earlier we were saying that mitt romney was ahead but that was very early in the evening. the president now has a little bit of a lead. david, mark, what about pennsylvania? >> ifill: head to go the goal of 270. >> i think david said it was the low-hanging fruit for barack obama. he's expanded the playing field and not leave something in the locker room. >> i said of the reaches it was the easiest. romney didn't get into harvard. >> the admissions director. at was sig because unlike ohio which is economically doing okay pennsylvania has been hurting. >> it's old. and it's older so the people thought if the polls are off and he's got a real momentum, that would show up. we'll see what the margin is. snep we showed an incorrect graphic a moment ago about the electoral college lead. in fact romney has the lead with 140 electoral votes. obama is trailing with 144 votes. still very early in the evening. 270 needed to win.

mark. >> woodruff: pennsylvania. i think pennsylvania... i think the other thing is that they just had an awful lot of money. i mean usually at the end of the campaign, you're watching car fare. you're watching whether they'll get diet coke and a six pack, these guys had so much money they could put 11 million dollars into pennsylvania the last week really on a lark and the obama people followed. they put in 3.5 million. >> woodruff: can i just say, mark, though, it wasn't just the money but the capped dates' time. >> i agree. that's right. >> woodruff: at any stage of the campaign it's where do you put the candidate. >> that's right. woodruff: maybe they felt they had made so many trips to ohio they couldn't... >> there were two interpretations of that. one is they're confident they would win pennsylvania. the other is they're desperate. they know they're going to lose ohio. >> ifill: or it's another fire wall in case they lose ohio, why not? >> in ohio and in pittsburgh where he went, it does get you

into eastern ohio. >> the media market. at's right. that media market. so it was not a totally wasted. it wasn't like layer me, wyoming. >> they're guessing like the rest of us. >> woodruff: i'm not trying to play political strategist here but why not spend more time in virginia or spend more time in florida, two states you really do need if you're going to win this election? >> well, one of the reasons is that, you know, and i thought of this this last day, i mean, you've got your people and to bring a candidate in and to put on an event for 20,000 people is an enormous investment of resources, time and attention and energy while you're trying to get your people to the polls. in other words, you're diverting resources. and i really question the wisdom of doing it maybe in cleveland today where they didn't have a great get out the vote operation for the republicans because it's not a democratic stronghold but it is disruptive to a campaign in the last few days so it

wasn't disruptive to the campaign in pennsylvania because there wasn't a campaign in pennsylvania. >> ifill: i'm going to play mark shields for a moment and tell you what's happened before in pennsylvania which will raise the question in 2008 president obama won 55% to 44%. in 2004 senator kerry won 51% to george w. bush's 48%. in 2000 vice president gore won. was it really ever within... >> the rationale was that the suburbs around philadelphia would be a little more natural to mitt romney as a northeaster. as i say the economy. the economy is bad in pennsylvania unlike ohio. so they thought, okay, there's a lot of white unemployed people. let's give it a shot. >> especially after the first debate. that was when mitt romney established a beach head especially among sub urban women voters, college educated voters. the most conspicuous example are in montgomery county in

philadelphia. i mean i can see making the case inside the campaign. >> remember when carl drove they did a bunch of california events at the end of their race when george w. bush was running just to get inside the opponent's head. don't overestimate the maturity of what's going on. >> woodruff: i'm told they have senate races that we are prepared to call. i'm just looking at what time it is. it's 22 minutes after 9:00 on the east coast. we are able to project for the pennsylvania senate that bob casey is returning for a second term. >> ifill: he beat tom smith who was a very well known tea-part candidate. he put a lot of money in. >> $20 million of his own money. the democratic incumbent wins in michigan.

>> woodruff: i remember the day when there weren't that many women. we've just announced three in a row. here in texas someone who will replace a woman in the senate. he is ted cruz. he has been very closely affiliated with the tea party. this is a win for the republicans in the state of texas and a very important win. >> ifill: and a rising star in the republican party. he had a big turn at the republican national convention as i recall. >> he is someone who has been around republican washington circles. some people don't think he's a rising star. some people doubt a little his star quality. >> ifill: we'll go to geoffrey brown speaking of star quality. >> brown: speaking of star quality, stu, well, and christina, we just got this list of new calls here. no real surprises there, right? but one we talked about earlier, we wanted to talk about was

minnesota. >> the democratic incumbent re-elected easily. not a surprise but i think it's instructive. four years ago this race al franken was elected to the senate over norm coleman by 312 votes. clobuchar wins in an easy victory. candidates matter and the election cycle matters. i think she has gotten very good grades in d.c. and i look for her to be a significant player over the next six years. >> i agree with stu. i was also going to transition to the house a little bit because two networks are now saying that republicans are jected to retain control of it. you've seen a... >> brown: the whole house? you got real news here. >> with two networks saying that. it's very interesting, you know, factoid in all this as we look at how these different states are breaking and particularly minnesota, michigan, these are states where the romney campaign was spending in that senate race and some of the house races in

minnesota. it doesn't look like it actually made a difference. >> brown: michigan senate race? they were all talking earlier about the impact in the presidential campaign. not exactly surprise. >> senator establish notice a little bit like senator bill nelson was re-elected. he might have been vulnerable. the republicans like to target her in the past. she was running against a former congressman who made early missteps in his campaign. not a very nice primary. this is an area where again she's re-elected fairly easily. >> brown: go ahead. one not called yet but that we're keenly watching is north dakota. that's an interesting case. >> yeah. there's a difference between theoretically competitive races such as the michigan senate race or the pennsylvania presidential race and real competitive races. this is the north dakota senate race. this is heidi hidecamp is the democrat and the republican congressman is rick burg.

mitt romney is supposed to win it by 20 points. but hidecamp is a personable, likable articulate candidate who has been around north dakota politics for a long time. >> brown: it's a democratic seat. >> but in a very republican state. heitcamp is a terrific candidate. the democrats have been hoping to pick off this one in a race. >> brown: most expensive in the state history is what i read earlier. >> when the democrats were talking about this race they were saying they were going to watch very closely how much mitt romney was able to win and drive up his numbers there because this is really the only competitive race on the ballot. it was no surprise that mitt romney won the state. so they projected gwen and judy just announced that just a little bit ago. those numbers are basically tied there as well. >> brown: bodes well for? the democrats. she's able to keep that margin high enough.

>> this is a really good race. it shows that candidates really matter. the class three cycles it almost didn't matter if you had a d or an r behind your name it didn't matter what kind of candidate you were. all the republicans won in 8 and 6. this looks like a much more even election. the candidate quality and the kind of campaigns they're running really matter. >> brown: thanks. back to you, judy and gwen. >> ifill: hari sreenivasan has been taking us around the country on a dimming ital map center. and our correspondents at pbs stations around the country. we'll go to him again now. >> sreenivasan: one of the states we want to check in on is colorado. joining me is cynthia from our station there. thanks for being with us. >> nice to talk to you, hari. first of all in the big picture for this national audience why does the a.p. think that colorado is a toss-up? why is it a backgrounds that the candidates are fighting over so far? >> the registration, the voter registration here, hari, is a third and a third and a third. republicans, democrats and

independents. so it has not been easy at all to gauge how this would go. >> sreenivasan: when we look at colorado we're going to pull up a population density map here. even though it's a large state you say the population the darker it is on this map, the more the population is per square mile, everything is clustered around denver. >> yes, it definitely is. front range has got the most of the population. a lot of colorado, of course, is rural. very distinctive personalities in the various quadrants of the state. over the past ten years, a lot more of the urban population around denver has become hispanic and more diverse. so that, of course, is another factor in why the obama campaign is hoping that they can pull out a victory here. >> sreenivasan: i just pulled up a different map looking at the demographic information according to the u.s. census bureau. the more pinning it, is more hispanic it is. around denver we're talking adams county and morgan county, these are 38% and 33% or 34%

respectively hispanic populations. if we jump over to a 2008 kind of presidential results map, what are the areas that we should be looking for as the night progresses? >> we are looking specifically at jefferson county and arap hoe county which are two large counties bordering denver in this metro area. one of them, jefferson county kind of mirrors the rest of the state being a third, a third and a third in terms of voter registration. and arap hoe county another bellwether as well. in 2008, hari, we had the democratic national convention in colorado in august that year. there was a great buoying effect which is why colorado in part went so strongly for obama in 2008. >> sreenivasan: sint i can't, from rocky mountain pbs, thanks so much for joining us. >> nice to talk to you. woodruff: we do have a projection to make. this one is news. that is that two networks have called wisconsin for president

obama. mark and david and gwen, that is a state that had been tending toward the president but the romney campaign went in there and they've been challenging hard. >> the home state of paul ryan, the vice presidential nominee on the republican side so it's a blow for the republicans. >> it came into play when he was the nominee and it means absolutely... i think it means absolutely romney has to carry ohio. if he didn't carry ohio he could get through the 270 through wisconsin and colorado. if he doesn't have wisconsin, that makes ohio even more important for him. >> yes, even though wisconsin has been consistently democratic it was carried by 5,000 votes by al gore and 10,000 votes by john kerry. i mean it was very, very close. so this is a real plus for the obama folks and a real roadblock because in view of scott walker's emergence and dominance

of that state as the governor not simply winning the governorship but then beating back the recall efforts so effectively as he did... >> ifill: remember when we were at the republican national convention the most popular people in the room, the most population delegation, reince priebus beings every time the name wisconsin came up because of the scott walker moment beating back the democratic unions especially, there was a big huzzah which went off. they've put a lot of eggs in that basket. >> i did have one republican tell me that scott walker was, all out, wod not be totally distraught if in fact paul ryan did not... >> woodruff: why would that be, mark? >> you have the two potential national figures from the same state. ambition is sometimes exclusive. this was admittedly a cynical republican but nevertheless an insightful republican. >> ifill: the only kind you talk

to, i'm sure. >> wait until aaron rogers runs. it should be said that scott walker had won on fiscal conservatism on holding down deficits. if obama has carried that state, he's got at least some of those people who are pretty fiscally hawkish saying i trust obama on this issue. >> ifill: we have a call on morrison at races at the associate press is predicting. we can now tell you that sherrod brown is re-elected as senator in ohio. this will be his second term as a senator. and he had survived what was a pretty vigorous challenge from republican josh mandel and a lot of money put in that. >> woodruff: in mississippi, in the state of mississippi, roger wicker re-elected to the senate. we're going to widen this conversation out and bring in our presidential historians

michael beschloss and richard norton smith. ringing your bells over there so far, richard? >> i'm just thinking paul ryan joins a pretty distinguished list that included geraldine ferraro and lloyd benson and jack kemp and john edwards of vice presidential candidates who failed to carry, to deliver their home state. >> also as long as we're talking about vice presidential candidates, mitt romney by some miracle should not carry massachusetts tonight, i think that would be the first time the two halves of a ticket have both lost their home states since mcgovern and shriver in 1972. could i mention one other thing? and that is we're talking about virginia. you know, traditionally there are two states known as mothers of presidents ohio and virginia that are competing for a central place tonight. virginia at the beginning, this is is where it was happening. this was jefferson and his successors all the way to john tyler. then because of the confederacy and segregation, virginia was

almost off the map, predictably republican in recent years and so to see virginia at the center of things tonight, it really sort of brings it historically full circle. >> woodruff: do we think of virginia throughout history, michael and richard, as a state that has... i mean, yes, it was... it's southern. it has a history of voting with the rest of the south but now it's become a battle ground state. it's a state that is more diverse than ever. we've talked about the counties around washington d.c. >> in 1976, it was the only state south of the mason-dixon line who remained local to the g.o.p. and voted for gerald ford. that's how republican in post goldwater america virginia had become. that clearly is not the virginia that we're looking at tonight. >> a very different state. ifill: let me ask mark and david about that question because i'm curious about what

changed. what happened between 1976 that richard was just talking about and today that virginia is so different? it's just an influx of different kinds of people? younger people that ray was talking about? we saw wisconsin where the president had a huge rally with all those people in madison a couple of days ago and maybe that was a sign? are we seeing some sort of fundamental shift that virginia going to guide us on? >> northern virginia... you know, seven out of the ten richest counties in the country are the d.c. counties. it turns out if you send 25% or 30% of your g.d.p. to washington we keep a little. it goes into the extremely rich counties, fairfax county even down to prince williams county, louden county which we mentioned. these northern virginia counties are booming counties. a lot more population. a lot of people from out of state. highly college educated. it's a classic upper middle class sub urban area where democrats do well.

>> i want to add to that that the republicans have become the more stridently antigovernment party. there's a lot of federal employees who live here as well as those who are working for federal contractors in different ways. it becomes a little bit of an attack upon the livelihood of people but add to that this incredible internationalization of northern virginia. i mean, dozens and dozens of languages are spoken in the public schools of fairfax county. tom davis the republican told me that there are 16 different languages spoken in his congressional district. he knew he was in trouble when he introduced the vee i vietname community. jim web who is speaking gave his entire speech in vietnamese. this is what it is. it comes to the internationalization... >> and socially liberal. if you look at the tv ads hitting northern virginia it's reproductive rights,

contraception. it's a big social issue. >> woodruff: bringing our historians back into this conversation about this area around washington i mean historically how much of a role has the suburbs or the suburbs of washington played whether it's maryland, virginia, close in pennsylvania even. >> they've been a liberalizing element in maryland and virginia. the thing is that in virginia the liberalizing element was not very large. in the last 15 years or so there's been an enormous economic boom in northern virginia. fairfax county i believe is the richest county in this country. it's almost like what happened to florida in the early part of the 20th century. before then florida was a reliably southern state with southern attitudes. a lot of people came from the north. a lot of people came from latin america, cuba. so now it's a very different place than it was before. very much like virginia. >> michael, i'm very curious and richard as well about what mark just talked about. the republican party becoming a

more antigovernment party over time. do you agree with that? >> virginia is a test case of that. governor bob mcdonnell who is a very popular governor nevertheless became associated very personally associated along with republicans in the state legislature with a whole host of proactive legislative measures designed to restrict abortion. and indeed all sorts of invasive procedures. it's really interesting for smaller government conservatives to embrace. and i think you're finding the sub urban vote around d.c. is affectd. but i also think there are a lot of folks who in 1976 would have voted republican who were drawn to moderate republicans but as

moderate republicans have become increasingly scarce they're voting against what they see as a government in richmond that is anything but the embodiment of small government. >> richmond virginia was the epicenter of massive resistance against school segregation down through the 1950s and even 1960s. you can perhaps connect that to resistance to large government and centralized power in washington. >> ifill: i feel like i've spent this entire election year in various suburbs around the country whether it was in colorado, whether it was in ohio. i know, judy, you've been in them as well. i do think that the sub urbanization of the electorate may be a theme we can see tonight. >> how many metro areas are there more jobs downtown than out in the suburbs? i think new york and chicago are the only two pretty much. if you're in america, you know, we head through the '90s and this led to the financial collapse actually, incredible expansion into these sub urban

areas if you're in ohio in the columbus area it booms for a long time. >> woodruff: that's become the battle ground for so many of these candidates. >> a postscript to michael and richard. virginia really was the cerebral and spiritual resistance to the desegregation of this country and the civil rights movement. it really began, it was richmond was the heart and soul of it. the massive resistance to close the public schools of the state and just to see a post racial virginia. i mean if barack obama could carry that state it's a rather remarkable achievement. to be a competitive state tonight, i mean, not to be self-congratulatory but it's a pretty good thing about america. it really is. we've come an awful long way from the time when harry bird sr. had the golden silence. state would vote republican for president. he would remain on good terms with the democrats nationally but there would be no democratic

candidate for president carrying virginia's votes. >> woodruff: we're going to be talking a lot more about virginia because everything we know leads us to believe that the lines are still in place around the polling places. they're not able to get anywhere close to making a projection. right now let's go to our own ray suarez. actually we're going to go to our own geoffrey brown right across the studio. >> brown: our own somebody. here i am. thanks, judy. i'm back with stu and christina. let's look at some of these races that we just heard called. ohio was sherrod brown holding to a seat. the state we've all been looking at on the presidential campaign forever, he got a good challenge. >> i think early on republicans were hopeful. this is josh mandel the republican state treasurer i think he is. he's 35 years old. he doesn't look a day over 15. he is articulate, personable,

smart politician who knows policy and politics. but i think for many voters he came off as a too ambitious and too young. sherrod brown is a tough politician. knows how to run a statewide campaign. both candidates raised a lot of money. there was a lot of outside money here. democrats have felt quite confident in the past few weeks. >> it was a state that was pretty interesting. senator brown was tied very much to president obama. that actually helped him a little bit particularly as they got into the politics. the auto bailout. he saw them campaigning very comfortably together. you saw a lot of the joint ticket support among democrats in ohio in ways that you didn't see in other competitive states. >> brown: let's circle back to virginia which all our colleagues were talking about. can we pull up that map center, the image of virginia for us, please. do we have that? okay. well, tell us... it will come. >> what's interesting about virginia, this is obviously a state as gwen and judy have been mentioning, they've kept the polls open in a lot of places

where there were still long lines. mitt romney was leading and the last results i was just looking at that were coming this in fairly slowly not that much returns are in. it's a very, very key state. >> brown: there it is. romney is leading 51% to 47%. gary johnson the libertarian candidate 1%. this is another state we're keeping an eye on because the former congressman, virgil goodee. >> brown: we haven't discussed that name yesterday. >> the constitution party candidate from virginia. he is expected to pull a little bit of support in southwest virginia. this is an area the republicans were concerned about because that could pull some support away from mitt romney while some of the lib tear yab support pulled support away from mitt romney it's such a competitive state. the president won this state by more than six percentage points in 2008. it's looking a lot closer. >> brown: there's an important call in the senate i'm told. i'm throwing it back to judy and gwen. >> woodruff: the call is in the state of massachusetts the senate race is going to the democrat, elizabeth warren.

the college professor, consumer advocate who was very much a part of the obama administration. he wanted to name her to a top consumer... to the head of the consumer financial protection bureau but there was so much opposition among republicans that it wasn't going to happen. >> ifill: she defeated the incumbent scott brown, the republican who had actually taken the seat which had been kay vaited... vacated two years ago at the death of ted kennedy. >> brown: stu, i'll come to you on that one. >> the massachusetts race started off very close. scott brown had good ratings. elizabeth warren is already, we've just declared her the winner. moments later i can say she's an icon of progressive advocates and groups. the race opened up over the past few weeks. republicans were acknowledging that elizabeth warren was getting over the 50% mark. there was controversy over her native-american background and whether she used it to an

advantage in her education and career. but i think as time wore on, you know, democratic voters in masss surprisingly -- not really surprisingly -- started voting democratic again. >> brown: i sebsed the irony. from a congressional leadership prospect we have talking about the senator from minnesota. expect elizabeth warren to come in essentially how barack obama did when he was elected to the senate. a little bit of that rock star status. she gave the keynote at the democratic national convention. she was the national icon. the way she ran this race i would expect a lot of attention to be paid to her in washington. >> brown: going back to the earlier discussion about the senate as a whole, this is a democrat. >> it's a takeover tore the democrats which they were looking at to keep control. the republicans would now need to win one more seat. >> we cited maine as a takeover and the situation in indiana is looking dire for the republicans as i understand it. and so, yeah, the democrats i

think right now are quite relievedded about the senate. they have felt that they were going to be able to hold on. they have to like the way they're looking now. >> brown: back to judy. woodruff: we're listening carefully to everything we say. we want to go to chicago to our ray suarez who is at obama headquarters. ray. >> suarez: judy, i'm with the chair of the democratic national committee debby wasserman shultz who is also a member of congress from florida. how are you liking the evening so far? >> well, i'm so proud of our... the tens of thousands of volunteers that have put together the most significant dynamics, the largest grass roots presidential campaign in american history. in state after state that ground game is showing that we have a people power, people-fueled campaign that i think is on its way to re-electing president obama. >> suarez: your own state florida is separated now by a matter of literally hundreds of votes out of millions cast. what made florida a tough nut for the democrats this cycle?

>> well, i actually i'm really proud that we've had such an incredible turnout. turnout going into early voting, we had at the end of early voting 157,000 vote advantage. floridians want to make sure that we have a president like barack obama to protect medicare, to focus on rebuilding our economy from the middle class out. we have a huge hispanic population that wants to make sure that we have a president who understands that if you work hard and play by the rules that everyone should have a chance to succeed and that when you have immigrated to this country and all you want to do is get an education or serve in our military that you have a path to legal status in this country. >> suarez: you're also in the house leadership. i'm wondering how it looks. it's early hours yet but whether you'll... you can see narrowing the current republican advantage in the house.

>> well we're on our way to doing that. in new hampshire in the second congressional district has won tonight. that's a pick-up for us. we know we have a couple of losses as well. the night is still a little new but i think ultimately we're going to have pickd up a number of house seats this evening. we have some huge senate victories. joe donley elected in indiana. bill nelson re-elected in florida. elizabeth warren elected in massachusetts. chris murphy in connecticut. sherrod brown re-elected in ohio. we're very excited that we're on track to hold the united states senate. you know what this is going to come down. after this election and tonight, we need to make sure that with president obama continuing to reach out across the aisle, we have to continue to focus on job creation, getting this economy turned around. i hope my republican colleagues on the other side of the aisle now put aside their focus on only one job. barack obama, and that they work with us and continue to our move our economy and our country

forward. >> suarez: could we looking at a night where we pack up and go home without even being sure who has won some of these big and perhaps decisive states? >> we still have voters in line across the country. we encourage them to stay in line, to cast their constitutional right to vote. we want to make sure that grass roots people-powered campaign we've run is allowed to be seen all the way to the end. you know, i think i'm not sure how long a night it will be. we know that we've got a little ways to go this evening though. >> suarez: democratic national committee chair debby wasserman shultz, thanks for joining us. back to you in the studio. >> ifill: there's a reason she's so happy about the senate because we have one more update that's good good news for the democrats. that's donley defeating the republican nominee in the state of indiana. back to margaret warner who is back at the romney election night headquarters at the boston convention center. margaret. >> warner: gwen, as you can see, i've changed low cals. i'm now inside.

everybody is sort of waiting expectantly. i don't even think that the elizabeth warren-scott brown results have been announced here yet. we have a band playing old tried and true tunes not on paul ryan's play list. this crowd i would like to say it's like any mid-election night crowd. if you look closely it's not the most excited crowd in the world but they're just waiting and hoping they're going to have good news. >> margaret, first of all we're very glad to see you inside where you can be a little bit warmer than you were earlier tonight. but i'm also curious about when we were talking to ray earlier. there would be a rise of excitement whenever something was announced. at least the senate races. are you getting any of that or is it just not enough good news on the republican side on far on the senate races. >> warner: i only just got inside. i only get to be inside for

about an hour and 15 minutes. i don't know. i just know that when you all announced elizabeth warren and scott brown, the results here in massachusetts, it had not been announced here. one key thing about that race is that... go ahead. >> woodruff: margaret, i was just going to say we got word that two television networks have projected the president will win the state of new hampshire which is one of the states where mitt romney has a home. his vacation home. that cannot be good news for the romney folks. >> ifill: margaret, mitt romney had his final, one of his final campaign rallies yesterday. >> warner: late last night people waited in line, i'm told, from about 5:00 in the afternoon for a rally and stayed until midnight. this is actually symbolically and sort of tactically huge if it does go for president obama. the romney people really in the last, i'd say ten days have

thought new hampshire looked increasingly good for them. >> woodruff: margaret warner we're so glad you're inside. we hope they let you stay inside as long as possible. we don't understand this rule that makes you go back outside again because we know it's cold in boston. thank you very much. we'll be coming back to you very soon. that is a piece of, another piece of good news for the president. it's only four electoral votes but in a close election, that was a place that could make a difference. >> al gore lost the white house by losing new hampshire. john kerry carried new hampshire four years later. al gore carried new hampshire in 2000, he would have been president of the united states. never got to florida, the supreme court or anything like that. >> ifill: i'm calling margaret mustang sally warner. >> pretty impress impressive. i was impressed she could hear herself think in there. what do you think about new hampshire, david. >> basically the polls ended up pretty good for democrats and for republicans to have a good

night tonight the polls were going to have to start being wrong. so far we're not seeing that. the senate races, you know, six months ago you would have thought the republicans would have carried a lot of these races frankly. it's trended democratic. and then on the presidential level, you know, florida is close. virginia is close. so that suggests the polls were pretty accurate. new hampshire has apparently gone obama. wisconsin has gone obama. that suggests so far it's trending in a democratic night. >> woodruff: michigan and so forth. >> it's... new hampshire, debby wasserman shultz with ray said that annie custer had won in her second try for the congressional district against a moderate republican. congratulations if she has, another democrat in the house. but charlie bass was sort of the quintessential moderate new england republican. the kind of guy that worked across the aisle.

talk about a vanishing species just like conservative and moderate democrats. >> ifill: dick lugar who is a person who richard murdoch who was defeated tonight is the person he beat in the primary. the last of a breed of moderate republicans in the senate and joe donley who was given no chance of being able... the democratic congressman, of being able to beat the guy who beat lugar is nominee tonight. >> there's a long trend. the senator from minnesota, democrat, won comfortably tonight. she stays in the senate with al franken. those two seats were held by a moderate republican and a more conservative republican. those two minnesota seats. and some are in retirement. >> i talkd to dave. that's right. he's a man i was going to say without a party. i mean he certainly is not comfortable in the current configuration. a word on joe donley.

joe donley is the first notre dame graduate, i believe, elected to the united states senate. >> you know why? because of purdue. mitch daniels became president of withdrew... purdue and withdrew from politics. >> ifill: we've gone into collegiate competition which is a perfect time to take a short break both of you. some of you are going to be getting updates on your state and local results. for the rest of you, we will be right back with more coverage of the 2012 election here on pbs.

major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: technology can provide customized experiences, tailored to individual consumer preferences. igniting a world of possibilities from inside out. sponsoring tomorrow starts today. >> united health care. online at u.h.c. dot-com. viking river cruises, exploring the world in comfort. bnsf railway. >> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasti this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> brown: i'm back with christina bellantoni and

i'll judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. it is 11:00 and the tolls are closed everywhere except alaska. we did fall back. we really did. go ahead, we have some projections to make. >> woodruff: at this time, according to associated press, there is some states we can call, and the state of utah,

mitt romney. i should say one state we can call. >> ifill: one of his three home state, and in fact,-- let's put it this way. he was-- he ran the salt lake city olympics, and he was very popular in utah and it's the headquarters of the mormon church and he has won utah tonight. >> woodruff: at this point in the evening, 10:00 on the east coast, the president, president obama, has won 16 states with a total of 158 electoral votes. and we may also be able to tell you-- yes, at this point, mitt romney has won 17 states with 154 electoral votes. it's early in the evening but it was close. >> ifill: we did not mislead you when we said this was a dead-heat race. we're still waiting for some

polls. but the ap has projected additional winners but we don't have them yet. we're going to go back down to the ones we know, how about, that david. >> florida and virginia. really close. i don't know how many vote pat bucan han has in florida but if he has any he may swing it. those states are phenomenally close, and we have to get to those. >> ifill: thanks for bringing us back to that terrible night. >> woodruff: i don't know if we're able to show our audience any of the numbers that we have so far, but if you're reading them off the wire, maybe we can share what they are. >> sure. >> woodruff: i think it gives people a sense of even though we can't project a state yet-- they closed at 7:00 p.m.-- >> glrd has 68% reporting with-- it's 50-50. so that i would say is close. >> woodruff: is that good news for anybody or does that mean nothing? >> these are must-win states for romney. they are absolutely must-win.

>> ifill: let me ask you a question, mark. it is clear that the democrats are-- are having a pretty good night with the senate races. is there a connection? we keep asking this. and i keep looking for it, between what's happening in senate races and what's happening in the presidential races? or is there a complete disconnect? >> well, ien, there's a disconnect obviously in indiana. i think elizabeth warren won in massachusetts. she won in her own right against scotscott brown, but president obama's cote tails were welcome and mitt romney when it came to coattails was wearing a-- >> ifill: careful. >> woodruff: was wearing a short coach. >> maybe a jungle gym shirt. extreme pickups at this point. you have maine, and the question was with angus king, who had been elected as an independent--

started-- he was elected as independent governor twice, and very successful and very popular. would he caucus with the democrats? that was decided when the chamber of commerce of the united states, and the republican pacs went in sp spent a bundle against him. if he had any doubts. that's though pickups at this point. the dreams of the republican-- >> almost three and a half pickups because connecticut goes from an independent back to-- >> that's right. the dreams of the republicans capturing control of the senate, in this great season, just did not materialize. >> woodruff: we have one more presidential result we can project. the state of montana for mitt romney. again, no surprise. it's a state that's gone republican for how many years, mark? you're the expert here. >> bill clinton carried it once. >> woodruff: so at this hour,

just a few minutes after 10:00 in the east we're still waiting, as you said, david, for states that are going t make a big difference for governor romney and whether he has a chance of putting the coalition today. pennsylvania, they're late. wisconsin, and new hampshire, a state he was competing in have all been called for president obama. >> i think you have to go back to the demographics. one of the things in massachusetts-- i'm blanking on her name-- >> elizabeth warren. >> too many names going through my head. she had an 18-point gender gap. that's huge. obama, nationally, according to the exit polls is looking at a 10-point gender gap, which is big. we'll see if that carries over. >> woodruff: clarify what you mean, meaning what you see is he's running 10 points better among women? >> right. >> woodruff: and how are men-- >> he tend to be-- not always exactly the same. often not exact let's same. >> ifill: well, let's have a

conversation about this. one of the things which kept coming up repeatedly throughout this was the role of women and women's issues-- whatever you define that to be in this campaign. and i'm wondering if what we're seeing in any of these senate races, especially, but even in the races we called for president, any evidence of that. of the despite? >> of the dispute? >> ifill: well, richard murdoch. >> israel, rished murdoch became almost the third rail of local politics. even though what he said, you know, was consistent with-- it was-- and not indefensible. there appeared to be a callous, almost disregard for the terrible experience of being raped, let alone a pregnancy coming out of that rape. >> you talk about the gender issue. it's always important to distinguish between married women and single women. >> that's right. >> married women were very strongly for republicans, single

women very strongly for democrats. the sociological trend over the past 20 years is there are a lot more single people, men and women. so the numbers just get bigger as the country goes into what they call living solo. >> woodruff: and it calls to mind the strategy that obama very transparently employed, talking about planned parenthood, talking about the position of the republicans on-- not just on abortion but on contraception, and there was a lot of criticism-- has been a lot of criticism-- >> i've heard criticism from women, from democratic women, saying that all the conversation is directed at us below the waist. that seemed to be the concentration. and there's no question, that the obama campaign was constituency driven. and it was-- it was messages delivered. and in front of everybody else. the thing about television is it nationalizes-- universalizes your message. even if you weren't a woman concerned with contraception,

you were aware of what the obama campaign was doing. >> ifill: let's pick up on that idea of constituents driving these things. let's go over to our historians, michael beschloss, before we do that. we actually want to call the senate raise racein missouri. claire mccaskill, has won that race. that's a perfect example of what we were talk pentagon-- talking about. she ran against todd akip, the man who talked about legitimate rape and whether women's bodies could shut themselves down. >> woodruff: she was consider a long shot before he made that comment about about rape. >> i would say again, like murdoch in indiana. it's not only the comment-- it was the flashpoint-- but he was so conservative, there were a lot of people who normally vote republican drifting away. >> he was shunned by the republican party, and of course,

governor romney did an endorsement, a tv spot for richard murdoch, so he has more at stake in indiana than the republicans did with akin. >> woodruff: we have electoral vote totals at this hour. it's 10 minutes after 10:00 in the east at this point. governor romney has 163 electoral votes on the way to 270. president obama 158. but as we keep saying, there are still a number of states we are waiting to find out about, virginia, florida, ohio-- these are all states where the polls have been closed for some time. >> ifill: that's right. the counting is going long and complicated. i want to make the point about missouri just fair moment before we move on to our historians, because one of the interesting things about missouri we notice there are only 2% reporting, the graphic we just put on the air. that shows you because that's the projections from the exit polls, the first information coming on. it shows a gap between

mccaskill and aikin that they could call it this early when it looked at one point like it was a competitive race. >> he was down but not by much. you thought there might be some invisible voting going for him, but not. >> woodruff: it's interesting it's slow because the missouri polls closed i believe-- yes, they did, 8:00 eastern, which was over two hours ago. in fact they've only got 2% counted is kind of surprising. >> one of the great thing about exit polls. there's no winner bias. you come out of the polling place. you've just vote. it's not like a preelection poll where i'm going to vote, i intend to vote or i got a flat tire or headache and i don't vote. you really do get a very clear picture. i don't know-- >> i think president john kerry would agree with you. >> speaking of john kerry and massachusetts, we want to go back to massachusetts where our friend margaret warn ser on site

at the romney-ryan headquarters. margaret. >> warner: hi, gwen. the romney-ryan hks ballroom here is playing fox all the time. the rock band isn't playing. and so there has been a subdued mood in the last 15 minutes. wisconsin going for president obama. new hampshire going for president obama. and fox was one of the networks who called for obama. and we're hearing analysis as to dwr. i would say it's definitely not an upbeat crowd. that said, none of the states they were counting on, florida and virginia, have gone for president obama. i wouldn't say there is hopelessness, but the fact wisconsin didn't go their way and new hampshire, didn't go

their way, disheartening. >> woodruff: are you able to talk to some of the folks of the campaign? are they making themselves available or are they pretty much off to themselves right now? >> warner: at the moment, i would say they're off to themselves right now. one of our issues has been because we were outside for a long time and they weren't willing to come outside but most of them, the operative ones, are still down at this boston garden, or t.d. garden. >> ifill: we might see the governor but certainly until more polls are closed and reporting. >> warner: absolutely. and he is still i'm given to understand, at his home in belmont, watching the returns. today, speak of what it's like to be a candidate waiting for the state, the day john kerry, senator john kerry, who lost,

learned here in 2004 he had lost the presidency, who made a comment to the class at harvard and he said it was the longest day in his life. he said not just because i lost but because it is so agonizing. you're there with nothing to do. and of course i of there was such hope and expectation that-- this is john kerry-- that he was going to win. all the exits were wrong, it turned out, and he lost. so i can only imagine that grandfather romney is going through the same kind of roller coasters at the moment. >> woodruff: for all the about thousands of miles, it comes down p down to the human tbeegz, candidates their families and supporters.

>> woodruff: margaret warner, watching indoors, still, in boston. and ray suarez, the headquarters -- i should say election night central for the obama campaign in chicago. ray. >> suarez: judy and gwen, i'm with austin goolsbee, the former chairman of the president's council of economic advisers and a professor once again at the university of chicago. if i could ask you to take off your presidential adviser hat and put back on your economics professors cap, who are the trend for whoever takes the oath of office in january? how is the economy looking? >> that's a super important question. i think the past-- next 12 months, the trends look pretty good. there is a lot of pent-up demand. housing is starting to come back, and you have seen a lot of growth in different sect oshz but over want next six to 12 months, i think the trends are

pretty bumpy looking. we have the fiscal cliff coming. you have seen the congressional budget office saying if they cannot address the fiscal cliff it would mean a recession at the beginning of 2013. i think whoever comes in that will land right in their lap as soon as they get there. >> suarez: let's talk a little bit about the fiscal cliff. it lands on the doorstep, america's doorstep, as soon as the election is out of the way, you know, the world is going to turn toward that. from what you're saying, this is going to have a huge impact on the economy. >> potentially, it could. whether you think well or ill of the recovery and reinvestment act, the biggest year of that was about a plus $275 billion, and in 2013, with all of the taxes and all of the cuts in the sequester, the fiscal cliff would be a minus 650, 700 billion in the year 2013. i think it's a pretty

significant economic number. >> suarez: and the possible impact on jobs? >> it's not good. i mean, if you look at-- at that circumstance, i think most of the private sector people that i talk to have not factord this in. they're thinking, look, it will come down to the wire but there's no way washington can be so dumb that they let this happen. but i don't know. you know, after seethe dynamic last summer with the debt ceiling, i don't know that they'll be able to. as you said, it's going to land right on the doorstep of america and ordinary people are going to see their taxes go up some $3,000, $4,000 a year if they can't sort it out. >> professor, thanks a lot. back to you in the studio. >> ifill: thank you, ray. i want to pick up a little bit on what austin goolsbee was saying, but with michael beschloss and richard norton smith, something they were touching on early, how this has become a constituency election-- or whether it's become a

constituency election. how unusual is it mark-- michael-- how unusual is it for that to happen where this conversation becomes not so much about the personality but speaking to specific groups of individuals and getting them to vote for you consistently cycle after cycle. >> yeah, that's what's happened. we now have the technology to be able to do it. one other aspect of this, for decades, for most of american history, when there were two presidential tickets, there were usually existly balance, or they tried to do that-- region, sometimes ideology. a couple of things about this ticket tonight. we're now up to missouri. so we've crossed the mississippi. this is the first time that both tickets on both sides, republican and democrat, not one person from west of the mississippi, first time that's happened since 1920. no southerner on either of these tickets at a time that we've been hearing for years the center of political gravity has been going towards the southwest. so you have to assume that

americans are becoming a little bit more nationalized and as you can see with the result with paul ripe in wi wisconsin, you o not get a state because a member of the ticket comes from there. >> woodruff: what have you two been hearing tonight that has struck your interest, your fancy? we have been asking you questions but you have been hearing the result results and correspondents. >> the correspondents have been great. >> i was listening to the conversation earlier with david and mark, about the apparent democratic failure to nationalize the house contests. and i would certainly not dispute that. i wonder whether-- however, it looks to me, it feels like they've had much more success at the senate level. and if you go back to the democratic convention, which may very well have been a turning point in this campaign-- i think hard to imagine a campaign-- or a convention, contrary to what a

lot of us tend to think about conventions in the modern era, that was more expertly put together to convey in part the positive message that they wanted to, but above all, to anathmitize the republican party, to portray it as a radical party cut off from its own roots, particularly on women's issues. missouri, todd akin claire mccaskill's advertising didn't just go after women's issues. todd akin made himself vulnerable on a whole host of,including opposition of the minimum wage, social security, and things that most americans tend to take as settled questions. >> can i come with up-- >> woodruff: go ahead. >> we were also talking earlier about whether history is useful to anyone but historians and history readers.

occasionally it is to politicians, and if barack obama wins tonight, it will be to some extent because they've studied history-- two points in history. ronald reagan in 1984. unemployment rate was still over 7%. so the question is how do you run in a year like that? to some extent they followed reagan who was essential he saying things have been bad but they're getting better. plus if you elect the opponent, you come back to the policies of jimmy carter that led to that. they studied closely george w. bush in 2004. >> ifill: michael and richard we have a couple of calls we need to make. first in new mexico, barack obama has been declared the winner of that election. >> woodruff: and that's a state he won in 2008. in the senate race in nebraska,

deb fisher, the republican, defeating bob kerry, the senator who came all the way back to his home state from new york city and he was portrayed as a carpetbagger. >> ifill: he was not expected to win but reinclosed the gap. gap. i bet we can find out more by going to jeff brown. >> brown: i bet we can. let's start with nebraska. >> deb fish ser from the northern part the state and she won a surprise primary, where you had two well-known candidates running against each other and surprised everybody and and won in part because of the sarah palin endorsement. people didn't give her much of a chance against bob kerry, particularly because he had been living in new york for so long. this is a very conservative state, and the anti-obama vote was going to come out fairly

strong there. it's not a huge surprise but it's one the democrats had hope for. >> brown: you had a national figure in bob kerry. >> and in the last week or so, the democrats said the race has tightened. deb fisher, when i interviewed her, nobody thought she would be the nominee. but she was personable, and articulate. >> she's a farmer not an artist. >> i think she didn't do great in the debates, but, look, this is a republican state. she's a good candidate. and bob kerry had lots of baggage. when you're head of the new schools in new york city and you talk about having moved to new york and you have become more liberal and you're on videotape, that's not a good thing. >> brown: that's a republican win, but mostly-- i want to ask you, stu, because you have been watching senate races for two years, since the last cycle. are you surprised in what we've seen so far, the democrats winning, so far, the close races? >> no, when i look at my

rothenberg political reports sheet which i've been working on here for two years. no. we haven't seen any surprises. we had bob casey winning in pennsylvania. bill nelson in florida. claire mccaskill in missouri, deb fisher. and elizabeth warren in massachusetts. having said that, there is a general sense here that things are, i think, a correction that the senate races are going well for democrats. virginia, montana are important if the democrats could pick off arizona or nevada. but things have been breaking for the democrats the past couple of weeks, i think. >> brown: you haven't had a chance to talk about missouri. >> missouri is a very interesting state where democrats hadn't been earning more than 50% of the votes even when winning because there were other factors. and and there is a third party candidate helping her a little bit. one interesting thing about deb fisher, it's the first time nebraska is sending a woman to the senate.

and in new hampshire, the associated press called the democratic governor won there. she will be the only female democratic governor in the country next year because she's won. >> yes. >> brown: is that something you didn't know? did we stump you? >> there is a sitting woman democratic governor right now, but she chose not to seek reelection in north carolina. >> right, so in 2013. >> brown: and back to you, glen and judy. >> ifill: we find it very interesting to see how all this is shaking out partly because we see what's happening on the senate races but not the presidential race. >> one postscript for bob kerry, who i have had a soft spot for. we say we want bipartisan and

people to work across the aisle. he was the classic example. he was endorsed by allan simpson, cochair of the longtime republican senate whip, and by chuck hagel, the former republican senator from nebraska and i think from jack daned forth other former republican senator from missouri. >> scott brown is another who lost. joe breesh man is out of the senate of his own free will. >> ifill: but bob kerry moved away from his state for some time, was president of the new york university. his wife wrote an op-ed in which she criticized nebraska. he was not welcomed back to nebraska with open arms. >> and she was a nebraskan. you have dick cavett, johnny carson, and bob kerry. >> it's become a redder state. can i go back to florida? we're seeing numbers out of the miami-dade county, and they're good for obama. the huge hispanic turnout there

and particularly huge non-cuban latino turnout. >> ifill: the growing latino population. >> woodruff: is it more than 84%? >> i was just beginning to look. miami-dade took a while to come in and obama outperform ago. >> ifill: that takes us back to something we touched on during the evening and we probably should come back to it again the power of the latino vote, and the degree that's tipping outcomes in so many of these races. >> if you look at nationwide, the number of people who qualify as voters, 11% of those are latino. the turnout has been lower among latinos than other groups, about 8%. but it's inching up, and as the share of the population inches up, it becomes a crucial swing-- or not a swing, but a crucial shift in demographics. >> there's no question.

and, i mean, look at new mexico. new mexico was a state in play, and it was taken off the board early this year. in large part because of the-- i'd say arizona's right around the corner. >> northern virginia. you mentioned-- >> woodruff: not just in the southern states that are border states or florida, but, you know, we reported on the "newshour" the other night about iowa, the significance of the latino vote there. virginia. and-- >> ifill: it's early but we're expecting to see what happens in colorado, another example. >> is virginia voting today? >> ifill: it's voting and voting and voting. apparently they can't quite get enough of it ?rood the secretary of state said he-- she-- was going to keep the polls open until at least 11:00. >> wow! >> woodruff: that's why we have not-- it's only 10:30 in the east. they're still voting in virginia. in fact, where we are, our studio is in virginia. >> and i always feel-- i should add-- the asian american

population is a large population and extremely democratic. >> ifill: you mentioned that earlier. and i meant to follow up on that. why? what is it about the asian population? we know the latino population may not be driven primarily by immigration but it's a gateway issue to other issues. >> i have theories. but indian americans in the last poll i saw this was 68% for obama, and there's a very well-educated, very affluent community. and so are chinese americans. and so the question is do they look at the republican party and just see a bunch of white guys and to any minority group they just don't feel comfortable? or as i suspect, there's also an element of your culture. if the republican convention is going to be about the lone cowboy, self-made do, it yourself, and you come from a culture that is more communal, more family, does that individualistic story about how you make it in america not resonate with you, whereas the democratic story may resonate a little better?

>> ifill: let's dig deeper with hari, at our digital map center. >> sreenivasan: we want to take a closer look at the state of wisconsin, and here to help us see the insights and analysis that the information on the maps decides, is andy from wisconsinvote.org. >> please to be here, hari. >> sreenivasan: i know the state has been called recently for president obama. but when you look at the state, when you look at the 2008 results, as the new results come in and trickle in. what are the areas that really moved the needle here? >> well, i'd be really interested to look at the swing counties. there were more than 30 counties that had gone for bush in 2004, and then turned around and went for obama in 2008. but then were strong supporters of walker, both in his if-- in his gubernatorial election in 2010 and in his recall.

i could be curious to see the numbers. it looks like turnout has been very high, higher than it was for walker. that may have made the difference. >> sreenivasan: i pulled up a map of the recall results. when you look te2008 results and the walker results, there was that tidal shift. what are the possible reasons that they came back around? >> well, it was interest, that even during the recall, there were people who voted against the recall for governor walker. there was still strong support for obama, about 9%, 10% still approved of him. so i don't think for many people it was such a partisan issue. i think a lot of people just didn't see the recall as fair play or the appropriate way to remove a politician from office who hadn't done something

illegal, say. so i think the support for obama has been strong, even among that element, and kind of throughout the polling we've seen. >> sreenivasan: andy, very quickly, janesville, certainly an area paul ryan plays very strongly in, but when you look back at 2008, you realize wisconsinites decide to split the ticket sometimes too. >> yeah, again, ticket splitting is very common. and rock county has gone democratic, but there is still a lot of support for paul ryan. >> sreenivasan: all right, thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you, hari. >> ifill: thank you, hari. let's take a moment now and review where we stand around 10:30 eastern time. as of this moment, president obama and mitt romney are tied in the electoral vote count at 163 a piece. but the president has picked off several key states, and it's appearing increasingly likely that governor romney will have

to win in ohio if he's to capture the white house. so far, though, the buckeye state, along with florida, virginia, north carolina, and several other battleground states have yet to be called. jeff, we're going to go back to you. >> brown: we're going to look at some national exit polling that goes, in fact, to what you all were just talking about with some key sectors of the-- of voters. christina, let's start with a look at race. >> yeah, well, what we're seeing is mitt romney, as expected, is winning white voters, 59% to 39%. again, this is a national look of exit polls taken of 23,000 people across the country today. then you're seeing the president is winning african american voters, 93% to 7%. latino voters, which they all were just talking about a few minutes ago, are breaking for the president 69%. and and this is an area where the president's team have been very clear if they were able to pass the 60% threshold this was going to be a good night for him. finally, the asian voters--

>> brown: that david was talking about. >> this is a factor playing in states you might not necessarily think about. nevada, we did a piece on the "newshour" about that. hari went to look at that, and here in virginia, and latino voters in unlikely places like virginia, iowa, north carolina. that's one reason why these states are close. it's also important to point out. it's not just the get out the vote operation, it's the changing demographics of the country. we looked at how the country is being reshaped, and if there are more of these voters and white voters are becoming a minority that's benefitting the democrats. >> brown: gender is another big issue that has been part of this campaign. >> we're seeing mitt romney won men by eight points, the president won women by 10 points. we've been seek this kind of split over and over in

application after election, and this is of this is really no different. i always offer the caveat when you look at white men and white women, mitt romney won both of those groups significantly. he won white men 62 to 35, and white women 56-42, by 14 points. the reason why the president does so well among women is he does overwhelmingly well among african american women. when you look at gender, you have to consider there are other factors, such as race, or marital status, or age. but, clearly, a gap the republicans still having problems with women. >> brown: a brief word on that, the gender issue. >> and the married/unmarried issue. this is one area, even with the tea party rise in 2010, you saw them using obamacare, as a way to get in on the issue, saying this is an issue where pem who are sitting down making health

care decision for their family could be targeted. it seemed a ripe area for political discourse. >> brown: thanks. back to you guys. >> woodruff: all right, thank you all. and we have a call to make. and two networks have projected the state of minnesota has gone for president obama. so this is a state that was being contested, has long been considered a friendly to democrats but, mark shields, it hasn't-- we're going-- let's look at the electoral college before i ask you about it. as of now, with minnesota in his column, president obama has 173 electoral votes to mitt romney's 163. they're still aiming to get to 270. that's magic number. mark, when it comes to minnesota, again, it's a state that we assume was going to go democratic but there was some noise around it. >> minnesota has not voted for a democrat since 1972-- for a republican, excuse me. they voted for richard nixon in

1972, even though it was the second lowest winning percentage he had in any state. there was a hope among some republicans because of the same-sex marriage ballot question and there was another-- i believe some other social issue on the ballot-- that there would be a bigger turnout of religious and evangelical voters in minnesota, and that mitt romney might be helped by that. but that, obviously, didn't materialize. michele bachmann, erstwhile presidential candidate, is a fight i have not seen the results of yet. this-- the possibilities, the reach, i think david used earlier in his admissions director jargon-- the reach to pennsylvania, minnesota, and elsewhere, just hasn't materialized. >> ifill: what was the reasoning in minnesota david? >> to go there. as mark said. you've got the money. >> ifill: really? is that how decisions really are made at this point? >> why not?

you you have more money than you can spend. >> woodruff: that's a first for this campaign. >> they spent $1 billion each, if you add everything up. that's a lot of money and there are only so many ads you can buy in akron. can i say we talked about flova, florida, ohio, virginia, but as it is shaping up now, obama could win the election without winning any of those three state. if he could win iowa, nevad, and colorado, obama has a lot of routes. y woo looked at the electoral vote, i still think it's possible to get to 269-269, the pundit's fantasy. >> or not. >> ifill: it looks like the associate press is calling arizona for mitt romney. john mccain, the last republican nominee's home state,

and even though john mccain won arizona, barack obama did reasonably well. >> woodruff: there's within a lot of conversation, i know, we were talking a minute ago about the latino vote, arizona, a relatively diverse state, but it's a state right on the front line of the debate over immigration, governor jan brewer who was pushing a-- >> and a great senate race with jeff flake, the libertarian republican congressman, a guy who had been an arch foe of ear marks in the house and paid for it. running against criched carmonna, the surgeon general of the united states under george. with bush, a decorated war hero of vietnam. a great story, came from rag ra- >> ifill: it's still too early to know how that turned out. let's go back to hari for a closer look at some of the

battleground states we have been talkintalking about. >> sreenivasan: we want to take a look at nevada with the eyes and ears of the naps. mitch fox from las vegas is going to help us understand this. >> it's nice to be with you. >> i have this map pulled up, and on this map, the more pink it is, the higher the hispanic population is. you see in las vegas, clark county, 29%. how big of a factor is that in this election? >> it's a huge factor. one in every six nevada voters are hispanic. the nonwhite population grew by 78% during the last decade. senator reed tapped into that two years ago in his reelection bid. and presume and the democratic party have gone ahead and mobilized that constituency to their advantage during this election cycle as well. >> sreenivasan: it was a toss-up for quite some time and just a few days ago, the associated press took it out of

the toss-up column and moved ift into the obama column. one of the biggest issues las vegas and nevada are recovering from is the foreclosure crise. a lot of people have forgot about that but you got hit hard. >> for about 60 months we were number one in foreclosures. just got taken off the number one list in march. throughout the state, 60% of the homes are upside down. it's even more pronounced here in clark county in las vegas. and the voters were looking for a candidate who would address the issue. there were some thoughts that president obama didn't go far enough. but when mitt romney came to town he said let's let the housing crisis running its course and. >> sreenivasan: in the second quarter of 2012, in clark county, there were 8,000 of foreclosure sales. it's hard to fathom for the rest

of the country. do you feel like you hit bottom? do people feel like recovery is on the way? >> we hope it is on the way. this was the epicenter of the housing crisis more than any other state. the housing prices were overinflated. we're looking to get out of the hole now. >> sreenivasan: rich fox, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> ifill: as of right now, mitt romney has 174, lec torl votes to 173 for president obama. but the president has picked off several key states and it appears increasingly unlikely president obama-- romney will have to win in ohio as we have been discussing. now i am curious-- you talked about the path, david-- >> woodruff: what we have right now is 60% of the precincts reporting from ohio. we have some results here. we don't know what part of the state these are coming in from,

but at this stage, with 50% reporting the president has 50% to mitt romney's 48. so he's keeping it close. >> ifill: the next one is virginia where we now see-- gosh, 13 electoral votes and 86% of the precincts reporting, 50% for romney to 49% for obama. separated by, what, 40,000 votes. it's very, very tight. and in the state of florida, with 90% of the precincts reporting, whoa. look at this. president obama has 50% of the votes to mitt romney's 49. and i'm doing some-- >> 56,000. >> woodruff: 56,000 votes. david you were talking about this a minute ago. is this the results of the south florida miami-dade? >> i think so. last i checked the panhandle hadn't come in, which is more republican. it expects to remain tight. when you look at some of the latino turnout, it's hard to see how romney-- if that turnout is real, it's hard to see how he

pulls that one out. in ohio the last time i looked, cuyahoga area, the cleveland area, hadn't come in that much. that's obviously big democratic. >> ifill: and a big early voting this time as well. >> woodruff: i noticed it wasn't voting early as much as columbus and cincinnati. >> the early voting is supposed to be counted first. so that should already be in glep except we haven't seen cuyahoga yet. and i looked at their voting the day before yesterday it looked like they weren't where they were four years ago. >> if you look at ohio, florida, virginia, and you look at where we are tonight, and obviously we're talking about not final numbers, but a lot of votes that have come in, where is the path for these two candidates right now? >> you look at those three state. these are three jump ball

states. they're completely tied. >> we haven't heard about north carolina. >> the polls closed there at 7:30, three hours ago. >> romney has to sweep these to just have a chance. and so know-- >> woodruff: if we have any results from north carolina in a few minute perhaps we can show that to you. those polls closed, i believe, at 7:00 30. here we go, with 95% of the precincts reporting, mitt romney has 50% of the vote to the president's 49%. i have to squint-- about 79,000 votes. so it looks like mitt romney is squeaking it out. that's a lot closer, gwen, than the romney folks had led i think-- >> ifill: especially, as christina pointed out earlier, president obama has not been back to campaign in north carolina since the convention in charlotte. now, it should be said michelle obama and other surrogates have been there, but it is quite remarkable it would be this close, unless there had been a

lot going on under the surface and in mobilizing the obama voters that maybe we haven't been able to see. >> and by all other reports, gwen, it was a big republican year. the republicans returned the governorship. the democratic governor did not seek reelection. the republicans won the governorship. i think the republicans expected to pick up a couple of house see the, and yet this presidential race-- >> there had been a possibility and again we don't know who the win the election, there had been the thought that president obama would win the electoral and not the popular but with the closeness in state like north carolina, that seems less likely. >> woodruff: i'd like to see the colorado numbers if we can get those up in a few minute. we haven't seen where things stand right now. ray suarez in chicago with the obama campaign. ray displai you know, gwen, people have been filing in here all night and starting to pay very close attention to the returns coming in. they cheer lustily, as you might imagine, when good news comes in for the president.

boo or mutter when a state is called for governor romney. but so far, no big state that is really hotly contested has been called as far as this crowd knows. they haven't had any bad news yet. every state won by mitt romney is one people in this room expected to be called. really there's great anticipation building now that the numbers are starting to show for ohio and florida and virginia and they're waiting. this is a very-- pretty knowledgeable crowd. and people know that these three big states are out there, and they're waiting for something to happen. in the meantime, they were playing what might be called barack obama's greatest hits, campaign videos in a long montage going on and on through the evening. and they cheer at his speeches. they cheer at the video of the crowd cheering. so they haven't had any bad news

yet, but it's a funny kind of moment in the crowd. >> ifill: it is a funny kind of moment, ray. i'm curious whether you're watching people, i don't know, spread out and getting for a long evening or like they're getting ready for something imminent? >> suarez: every now and then there's a sot of tease, you might say. they put up a number showing the president ahead by a hand full of vote in a place like florida. and there's a great big cheer. but the really big cathartic cheer that they are waiting to let loose with still is some time off, and i think that's well understood. prominent democrats have been out on the noo on the floor andn the risers talking to america and the world all evening, and i think that's a sign of the cefs this group has that things are going their way. >> ifill: i think it's fair to say we did not-- we did know this was going to be a long evening and we're seeing that

play out in chicago. thanks, ray. we're also going to go to boston where margaret is on hand and she's also watching this long night play out. what's the room like where you are? >> warner: well, gwen, they are still right here on the screen behind me playing scott brown's conception speech. scott brown the republican incumbent senator from massachusetts. and the crowd here is still cautious and still waiting, but i have talked to a number of people in the crowd-- one from michigan, one from massachusetts, and one from california, and i heard some disappointment in the way the campaign-- the way governor romney positioned himself. for example, one woman who is from california who had voted for mitt romney as governor when she lived here said, you know, "i voted for the mitt romney mopassed health care here," but she said" i think when he embraced more--" as she put is--

"preme positions as a candidate, i think he lost a lot of educated lewis peopleducateeduco otherwise would have been drawn to him because of his business experience. there is-- i wouldn't say there's a lot of postmortemming yet going on, but when you press people, there is a bit of concern about the way he positioned himself. >> woodruff: margaret, it's interesting that someone there is questioning the strategy or the tactics of the romney camp because typically the people around the campaign are pretty, shall we say, down-the-line loyal in supporting what the campaign has done. >> warner: absolutely, jied, but people who are actually with the campaign here are wearing different badges, and they all say, "i'm not allowed to talk to you." these are the people who are the attendees-- these are the attendees.

if it says "atendee it's ofoon" was a business man from bloomfield hills, michigan. these are the people who are state supporters. obviously, important enough or maybe high rollers enough to have been in this crowd. are you absolutely right. if anyone is staff tore adviser they wouldn't think of doing what i just reported to you. i have to beat the bushes or beat the crowd as it were. >> woodruff: i bet they're every bit as knowledgeable-- i don't know how many news organizations they're showing there-- but every bit as knowledgeable about what each state means, as ray said the crowd in chicago is. >> sreenivasan: absolute. they're only showing fox here but they have not had something really to cheer about since the utah results were arp nowngsed. i lost track of time but i

believe that was an hour ago. they're not literally biting their nails but watching very, very carefully, and fox has already been having analysis on themselves about-- not if he loses but what might have gone wrong here and there. and at one point someone turned to me and said, "did sarah palin just say the campaign had been badly run?" or something. even if it weren't being announced from the stage, it's on the screen displood margaret warner reporting from the romney campaign headquarters for tonight in boston. thank you, margaret upo.we have a state to call for governor romney, missouri, which has gone republican the last three elections, so not a big surprise there. i think it was the closest state in the election in 2000, if i'm not mistaken. barack obama tried valiantly but came i think it was .14%,

something like that, by a very narrow margin he lost that state. >> used to be-- >> ifill: with 6% of the precincts reporting in colorado, and it's also a very close race there. president obama, however, with what looks like a reasonable-- 20,000-vote lead-- >> 56. >> ifill: over mitt romney. 51% to 47%. and that's colorado. >> woodruff: the state of iowa, another state we have been watching very closely, with 24% of the precincts reporting, the president is ahead 56%. in virginia, now this is a state we have been watching and i think it's been at 87% for about an hour. >> ifill: there were long lines, a lot of enthusiasm in virginia, a lot of slow count-- >> woodruff: a 30-some-thousand vote-- >> 36.

>> woodruff: thank you, makes, mark shields. and here we are the state of ohio with the president clinging to a, at this point, with 65% of the precincts-- >> 87,000 vote lead. >> mark's mathematical ability-- >> woodruff: florida, with 92% of the precincts reporting, the president is ahead-- >> 16. >> i'm watching with rain man. rauf rauf. >> ifill: we're getting a little punchy here. 96% of the precincts reporting in north carolina with mitt romney still ahead by a very narrow margin. >> woodruff: he's ahead, but does that look like about 72.647. >> round is off, judy. >> ifill: ohio, florida, virginia, what are you watching? what's the most critical call we're waiting for?

>> i think it's florida. >> ifill: not virginia? >> right now i think florida is the most imperilled for mitt romney. >> if romney does not carry florida, i mean, there's just no way. there's no route for him. >> woodruff: even if he were to win ohio. >> florida is a big state. >> florida is 29 electoral votes and just getting bigger and bigger. >> ifill: i'm curious. we also talked about missouri, we saw earlier the senate race in missouri went for the democrat but the race itself, the presidential race, is going for the republican. is that typical of missouri? >> not necessarily. i think missouri has become-- it was a bellweather state. it was like ohio. it's become a more republican state. and i think president obama made it a plot closer in 2008 than it really is. and claire mccaskill-- it was the special circumstances of todd akin's race, i think, that

made that-- >> they don't call these swing states for nothing. they are swing states. they're all incredibly close state, and as stu keeps saying, candidates matter. and they voters can tell the difference. >> the higher the office, the more important the candidate. in other words, president, governor, and even senator. i would say this-- if florida does go for obama, jeff garren, the democratic pollster, predicted he would get 60% of the hispanic vote in florida. >> ifill: we're going to take a short break now. some of you will be getting updates on your state and local results and for the rest you we'll be right back with more coverage of the 2012 election here on pbs.

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>> hello again. welcome back to this pbs newshour special coverage of election night 2012. i'm judy wood rough. >> ifill: i'm gwen ifill. it's 11:00 eastern time. the polls have now closed in every state except alaska. it's been neck and neck all night. president obama and mitt romney have mostly won where they were expected to win but the president hassles picked off the battle grounds of new hampshire, new mexico, and wisconsin. romney has won north carolina but florida, virginia, and especially ohio are still too close to call.

>> woodruff: gwen, we just... we mentioned north carolina. that was a state actually, i think, a lot of people thought would be called sooner than it was. the polls closed in north carolina at 7:0 eastern. we weren't prepared to call it until just before 11:00 so three-and-a-half hours later. that had to have the romney folks, and david you and mark were saying this earlier, a little bit nervous tonight. they're still waiting for these other states. >> he's not being shellacked but he needed is surprises to win this election because of where the polls ended up. so far in the states that have been called there have been surprises. in some he's underperforming. >> woodruff: we have some projections to make. let's see what they are. california, the polls have closed just a moment ago in the state of california. the president has won it for the second time. >> ifill: the next one is washington state where president obama hassles won. >> woodruff: and hawaii, his birth state, barack obama, the

president has won hawaii the second time. one of the bluest states in the country. >> ifill: as we keep going west in idaho midded romney has won. and that's it for now. you know, i want to go back a little bit. we talked about ohio because we just had some interesting information even though we don't know the outcome. virginia. we now know that the senate race is over. tim kaine the democrat has won. we don't have any reporting in yet from for noak which apparently president obama won 71% of in 2008. we only have half of... is washington suburb which is very blue and only less than a third of fairfax county which is one of the battle ground counties in virginia. what does that tell you about where virginia is going coupled with the senate race. >> those are not only democratic leanings, they're big. the population centers, they're population centers. that makes virginia a tough

climb. romney has to climb uphill to win that. >> ifill: right now we have 87.6% of the pre-stingts reporting. mitt romney with 50% and president obama with 49%. >> the 13 or 12 points that is still out comes from those three regions. >> ifill: it's reasonable to assume based on the numbers we have so far. >> woodruff: we mentioned the louden and the prince williams counties which are fast-growing counties, considered swing but fairfax and arlington counties, the counties gwen just named those are counties that have gone pretty consistently blue. democratic. >> that's right. that will help the president. >> ifill: take the same county numbers to ohio where the president is winning in hamilton county. it's also very close. >> he is winning hamilton county? >> ifill: with 54% of precincts reporting he's winning, cincinatti, 43% with only 18% in and only 9% of cahoga which is

the cleveland area is reporting yet. that's a obama stronghold as well. >> president obama in 2008 was the first democrat to carry hamilton county since lyndon johnson and only the second democrat in the century in the past century. franklin roosevelt did not carry hamilton county. >> ifill: we still don't know that is going to happen tonight. >> president bush carried it in 2004. president obama carried it. of the two counties that's the only one that switched. >> i come back to the demographics. there's this thing the mcgovern coalition which in '72 was a pretty small coalition of minority groups, university towns, a few other sectors, some union people. and in '72 that was a small coalition. now it's a big coalition. so in some sense the mcgovern coalition is now, if he wins, you would call it a majority

coalition. aside from the quality of the candidates and all that. >> ifill: is that because more are born? >> there are fewer union members obviously but there are just a lot more people in college. college towns are bigger and much more important. and obviously the minority groups. >> woodruff: which is interesting because those were the groups, in fact, we've been looking at some of the exit poll numbers without knowing the results of some of these states. the president doesn't seem to be getting quite the two-to-one massive margin that he was getting against john mccain but he still has a very sizable margin with the younger. .. >> speaking of the democrats. woodruff: we have senate calls. dianne feinstein will return to the senate, democrat in california. >> ifill: also we have in hawa hawaii, the former governor in hawaii was beaten.

>> woodruff: and maria cantwell. that's three more women ejected to the senate. >> i'm tired of that! how many will be there? >> ifill: you're in the wrong place for that, mark. >> woodruff: there was expected to be a large number of women if it was a good night for the democrats in particular. then some republican women have done well tonight. >> claire mccaskill. i haven't think of any who lost. i think all the women have won... >> sipt i can't dell lost in maine. she was the democratic nominee. up couldn't lose in hawaii because there were two women. that was one that the republicans really thought they had a shot with, linda linkal who was a popular republican governor. >> ifill: faded fairly quickie. yes,. linda mcmahon. that's right. linda mchand. elizabeth warren won. >> woodruff: most of the women in the united states senate are democrats. >> kay bailey hutchison is

leaving. and olympia is leaving too. >> they lost two republican women. let's go to boston where our margaret warner is standing by. no, it turns out she's not standing by. okay. we're going to go to her in a moment. we're going to talk among ourselves. >> woodruff: she's getting her microphone on. but i think it's fair to say that there was a time early in my career of covering american politics when there were so few women in the senate, you knew or you could name them in a matter of five seconds. >> ifill: what i'm always curious about is whether there's a connection from the women's presence in the senate and the issues that then get taken up. i don't know that there's a connection necessarily just like all women's issues are not about contraception and reproduction. maybe not all women candidates. >> i would say... i'm making a dangerous generalization. >> ifill: we're here to stop you. two women will stop you.

>> you kick me. i look at senators like amy clobuchar who strikes me as a new type of senator. by that i mean more casual, more everyday, less... she's the least pompous person on the face of the earth. just more like approachable. one of the things that strikes me is just a change in tone. instead of when you look at the senate floor and there was a bunch of big, striding egos. >> ifill: it may be a generational change. >> that's an excellent point. ifill: i'm reliably told that margaret warner is available to chat with us now from boston. i'm wonnerring whether you have anything new to report. margaret, what's going on there? >> warner: well, the same dynamic, gwen. people are still watching fox news. the crowd is deflating further. the scott brown and elizabeth warren race though is an interesting one because until the very end actually democrats

were very worried about this race. because i heard you speaking earlier about elizabeth warren. she was actually not doing well enough, they fell, among white working class democratic men. and that there was a serious gender gap problem for her. so it is interesting that she seems to have won fairly handi handily. i would say that's something of a surprise. scott brown was doing very, very well until the debates. apparently she outclassed him in the debates. elizabeth warren did. that's when he dropped the whole emphasis on whether she claimed to be an american cherokee as part of her entry into harvard. that didn't fly too well in the debates. >> ifill: margaret, i'm curious, remember when i was in massachusetts a couple weeks ago reporting on this race that one of the things that came up was that scott brown was trying his darndest as linda mcmahon did

in connecticut to actually tie himself a little bit more tightly to barack obama. you were talking yerlier to folks in the audience of scott brown voters. but does that translate in anyway among the criticism which you are hearing about the romney campaign or is what happened with scott brown and elizabeth warren its own thing completely separate. >> warner: no, i think they are tied. shelly whom i had on earlier, the editorial page director of the "boston herald" said to me before we went on, she said, you know, i think that romney is outpacing scott brown but not by enough. i think the two were tied. he was trying to run as you heard governor weld say, he was someone who reached across the aisle. but in the end that didn't fly here. you've got to remember, massachusetts went for obama over romney. that is president obama over

mitt romney. i think it's 60 to 39. this is a very, very liberal state. >> ifill: not exactly known as one of the more red states. margaret, thank you so much. we have a couple calls we want to make in the state of iowa. we'll go there because it has been called for barack obama. barack obama has won the state of high with a where he ended his race not yesterday night. that was his final stop. going back to des moines where he started. >> woodruff: emotional. that's where he got his start on the national scene. he won the iowa caucuses in early 2008, and took off like a rocket because he went on to lose the new hampshire primary. but iowa was really the place that launched barack obama. he and michelle obama were emotional last night. >> mr. cool showed a little bit of tear last night. >> woodruff: but this is also a place where the republicans were fighting really hard to take iowa away from the president. so this has to be, david, a

disappointment. >> ifill: let's go back to chicago where ray suarez is now standing by with the mayor of the city of big shoulders. ray. >> suarez: i'm with rahm emmanuel as you mentioned. mr. mayor, we've been talking about the fact that billions of dollars have been spent on this campaign and as far as you can see not that much has changed. >> yes and no. i mean, one is you're going to have a democratic senate, a republican house and a democratic president. that's what it looks like at this point. that said, what is also different is the choice i think elections have meaning. in '96 we had a biggie leches. bill clinton went on to win. we had a balanced budget nine months later. the republicans will see this election. they spent a ton of money trying to defeat him. the american people spoke. i think that gives the president a clear mandate to lay before the congress. his agenda to strengthen the middle class. yes, not a lot of chairs moved

but when the voters speak in a democracy that has purpose and meaning. >> suarez: even with roughly the same proportions in the national legislature, you're saying the argument for obstruction in the house is no longer there? if the president maintains his lead? (crowd cheering wildly) >> what i believe is that the republicans now that he got reelectedded. >> suarez: they are just responding to cnn's projection of obama as the winner of the next election. rahm emmanuel, i guess this is a vindicating moment for you, huh? >> not for me. it's a labor of love for my friend and our president. a labor of love.

i have to tell you the mayor said to me just before we go on the air, i have to go back to my wife when the president is declared. i'm sorry you're still here with me but we're almost done. what does this change? >> given the candidates could not have been different clearer about their differences for the country and the direction, you have probably some areas where there's more energy for the president than there was in '08. the american people are ready for his leadership, his policy directives. he wants the republicans to work with him. you cannot continue to obstruct and take immigration reform. the republicans stay on the course of obstruction, they will be a minority party nationally. it's wrong for the country and wrong for them politically. >> suarez: mayor rahm emmanuel of chicago thanks for joining us. good to see you. back to you in the studio.

>> woodruff: you just heard ray describe what was going on there with the crowd in chicago. three television networks have now called the state of ohio for president obama which means here it is right now with 70% of the precincts reporting, it's still very close but with three networks projecting the president, mark and david that sends the president a very long way toward 270. we don't have the total in front of us but that's very significant. >> ifill: that was a pretty dramatic moment watching the mayor of chicago and the former chief of staff and the former campaign strategist shoot his hands into the air and say he has to find his wife. >> woodruff: if this is the case mark and david does mitt romney still have a path to the white house? >> no. just of the states you've named he picked up 94 electoral votes. 55 in california. 18 in ohio. four in hawaii. 11 in washington state. and six in iowa.

>> ifill: we're going to tell you exactly what those numbers are because the latest electoral college numbers have president obama at 275. mitt romney at 203. of course 270 are needed to win. is the nextmbers hold, bt president opresident of the uni. >> woodruff: he is re-electd to office. david, we preceded this conversation by asking whether... this is the live pictures coming to us from mccormack place in chicago. david i was about to ask you, was there anyway for mitt romney to be elected if ohio goes to the president? your answer was no. >> 275. that's more than 270. i'm not as good as math as mark. you know, it's not the inspiring victory it was, but it's a tenacious victory. he really grounded out and fought very hard, very tough. and the people in that room are enjoying the experience. >> ifill: grinding it out is a very good description of what

this campaign has been, mark. >> he sure wasn't lifting him up. it was grinding it out an inch at a time and a yard at a time. >> woodruff: grinding and ground game. if there's one thing the obama people will talk about, it's how they were confident from almost from the day the thing shut down in 2008 or 2009 that they were going to be organized. >> ifill: it should be said that he was able to win that... get to 275. we still do not know what the outcome is in florida and will not know what the outcome is in florida according to the secretary of state. >> or virginia. ifill: we know for sure we won't know in florida until tomorrow because they're still counting. we wait to see what happens in florida. we know already that it will be... >> woodruff: that long lines in miami dade suggest good news. >> if anyone doubts the obama ground game, look at north carolina. the fact that in north carolina

it was that close. by every other measurement it was gone. it should not have been that competitive. >> ifill: could he have won north carolina? >> i would just say that the democratic party is better positioned to win majorities right now than the republican party. the republican party has become a party of shrinking groups. they did not have as good an economic story to tell about how to recover. this is not a country that thinks cutting 20% tax cuts across the board is a plausible economic solution. obama's balanced approach was a better story. this is not just an obama victory. if you look at the senate this is a pretty good democratic victory. >> woodruff: look at that crowd. i have to say i was in chicago four years ago when it was out on grant park. they said then there were over a million people. i don't know how many people can fit into mccormack place this is not a small crowd. for all as you say grinding it

out and the detail work that went into this and the fact that we kept hearing that there was less enthusiasm and less energy and less excitement on the part of democrats, it seems to me that at the end as we came closer to election day, you can almost see it in the polls that the enthusiasm among democrats was rising by the day as you got closer to the vote. >> ifill: the polls showed us that the enthusiasm among republicans was rising. that's what we saw in these last days. if you listen to all the republicans come out, the romney folks come out in the last day or two, they didn't sound like they were making it up. they sounded like they still saw a pathway. is there something they missed, mark? >> i think they missed the ultimate flaw of the campaign. there were two addresses in america that the american voters were furious with during this campaign. pennsylvania avenue both ends of it capitol hill and the white house. most of all wall street. the republicans nominated

somebody who was the quintessential wall street candidate. i mean you just think of chris christie had been the republican nominee, somebody with that sort of common touch that regular guy who could talk to the fellow who rolls up his shreves or the one who punches a clock everyday. mitt romney couldn't do that. mitt romney in many respects was the worst possible candidate at a time when there was a fury with the economic powers of this country and what they had done to the country. i just think that a lot of flaws he had. >> ifill: this will be a good time to ask michael beschloss and richard norton smith for their thoughts on the scene they're seeing and the history of what we're watching being made right here. richard. >> i guess i first of all say the community organizer organized the country. but i also think that david was right. this is a democratic victory

tonight. the president may or may not have coat tails but the ideas, the vision, yes, the constituencies if you want to call it that and the way they cast the opposition, i think all of that contributed to an historic result. >> woodruff: michael, what are you seeing as you look at this crowd and consider, it's only i think we were able to call this at 11:15 in the east. there were some people who were saying we'd be here all night. this is really just a few minutes after the polls closed in 49 of the 50 states. >> think how improbable this would have been 18 months ago, judy. the summer of 2011 you can go back to the number of pundits who were saying that no president could get re-elected with a jobless rate of over 7.5%. what they were ignoring was the fact that this is a guy who has resisted the normal laws of political gravity his whole

career. he ran against hillary clinton, that prohibited favorite of the democratic party got the nomination. ran against john mccain. won by a margin that no one could have imagined. got the united states out of the war in iraq without a domestic back lash. and has been able to come back, win a second term with what he would be the first to say would be a disappointing economic news. i think what people didn't quite bargain for was the resilience and the skill of this candidate. >> woodruff: i was just checking some notes that i made earlier today. no president has won re-election since world war ii with an unemployment rate higher than 7.2%. >> that's right. woodruff: right now the month of october it was 7.9%. >> franklin roosevelt won with 16% in 1936. but only did that because things were getting a lot better. >> think of one of the accomplishments though of this campaign. if you went back and looked at the number, that critical number

right track wrong track of the country before the convention, i think you would find in a much more negative light than coming out of the convention. in that sense, something really interesting has happened. i'm not sure we fully understand. i and others have complained about the ideas in this campaign and yet it may very well be that this has been more a campaign of persuasion, convincing the american people that things aren't great but they're getting better. what can i say? >> ifill: let me ask as we watch the folks in chicago dance to aretha franklin respect. mark, let's talk about respect. was this a question of the president's being the appealing figure that was able to overcome all these historical imperatives about the unemployment rate and

about all these other things that he wasn't supposed to be able to do or was this where the american people are right now, that they are willing to take what they have rather than what they don't know? >> if they are willing to take where they are and go forward from here and then it's a tribute to the argument that he's made and the case he's made to them because it was mentioned 7.2% ronald reagan was re-elected with that in 1984 but ronald reagan came down 3% in the preceding 18 months from 10.2 and for barack obama it's only come down 1.1% in the preceding 18 months. he was able to persuade them that things are getting better and that they were even without that plan that david and i kept asking him for. he ignored it. he was totally indifferent to us. he persuaded people that he could. >> woodruff: may i mention one name right now. i don't know if he's in that crowd former president bill

clinton i think went a long way toward making that case at the democratic convention. >> no question. woodruff: this summer he stood there and he made a speech that rallied not just the people in the room at the convention hall but people on television. there was a tangible difference in the interpretation of the president's stewardship of the dme. >> you are so right, judy. i would urge anybody who is interested in a political career to read bill clinton's speeches last saturday and sunday in bristow virginia and concorde new hampshire. you will see a masterman making the narrative. >> ifill: david, who would have thought that bill clinton the husband of hillary clinton who had a famously fractious relationship with barack obama four years ago might have been the person who handed him the second term. >> that was the turning point though. it's very rare for a president to be re-elected to a smaller majority than he won a election. historians tell me the last time this happened if ever. i still... woodrow wilson.

>> woodrow wilson won a larger majority. >> it was 23 electoral votes. woodruff: i love it when we're arguing like this. >> ifill: judy and i have lost total control. let me ask michael to finish his point. what was that? >> i think another point is that you're looking at the ways he's making history tonight. it's amazing but the last time that you had three presidents elected to a second term serving two terms at a time were thomas jefferson and two successors. it's been all that time until we got to a situation where we have two terms of bill clinton and george w. bush. now barack obama. >> woodruff: gwen covered the washington/adams race. >> ifill: thank you, judy. right now it feels like it. at 11:25 at night.

>> adams was not a fun guy. ifill: we have to turn the corner here because there's a big celebration going on in chicago. we're about to hear the president come out obviously and accept this. his re-election tonight. you know, there's a corner that has to be turned here tomorrow. there are a lot of problems. the party tonight will have a hangover tomorrow. david, what are the first things that the next president as it happens the re-elected president has to face. >> first of all he has to have an agenda. he a top secret agenda which involved the grand bargain which is going to face a lot of problems in his own party when he tries to do that. immigration reform. a lot of problems in both parties he has to have an agenda. the republicans will have an argument. it's the beginning of a historical problem for them. how are they going to shift. >> woodruff: speaker john boehner said in an interview that whatever the president wants to do with regard to raising taxes on people earning over $250,000 a year he said

it's not happening. i would just say the obama white house would argue with what david just said. they would say there is an agenda out there. it may not be the robust agenda... >> ifill: maybe mark wants to argue that point. >> woodruff: what would you say, mark? >> judy, i think the world of you but i think david is right. i just think that what he's going to run into in the teeth and the wind of this democratic victory in the senate, i mean democrats had a very good night in the senate. there's going to be a greater resistance to a bargain. from democrats. now you have boehner on one side because he's got eric cantor behind him probably less chance of eric cantor challenging him than before the election. it looks like the republicans did pretty well in house seats tonight. if they had lost 20 house seats i think then eric cantor would have mounted a challenge to john boehner. john boehner's speakership may be more secure as a result of the results tonight. but that means that he's also

got a caucus that's just been re-elected that is a pretty right wing caucus. >> ifill: it should be said we do not know at this point what the final numbers are in the house or the senate. we can have jeff and stu to give us an update on where everything is. as we wait to see the presidential candidates come out and speak. >> brown: we could do that. i'm here with stu and christina. stu, pick up on what they were just talking about. the house seats right now. >> let me do the senate first. let me krek some of their... well, no. right now we have the democrats having two in the senate. they won massachusetts, maine and indiana. the republicans have picked up one democratic senate seat in nebraska. that's plus two. we still have about a half a dozen seats that still have to come in. republicans have a chance of picking up in north dakota,

maybe another one. we're somewhere at democrats two, democrats two one, a wash. what i think the republicans are going to say after this is wait a minute. we should have two more seats here. if we hadn't had candidates who self-destructed in indiana and missouri we would have two more. >> brown: that is a big gift. they were saying they did it to themselves. >> absolutely. no question they did it to themselves but i'm talking now about the psychology. coming out of this election, are the republicans going to say, boy, we got our behinds handed to us here: they're going to say we did this to ourselves so the country is really behind us. that's the first point. the second point if you look at the house, we're just not seeing what we see on a presidential at the house. i don't know what the final house number is going to be but it looks to be like where we thought it would be. somewhere between a wash and half a dozen seat democratic gain. >> brown: a short if any coat tails. >> the house republicans are going to say our friends, our

republican friends in the senate they don't know how to win seats that are handed to them on the silver plate and the presidential race we had a candidate who couldn't win. that's what they're going to say. they're not going to regard this as a dramatic defeat. >> intraparty battles between the republicans in the senate as well. they have leadership elections. this is the next phase they're rethinking what direction they want to take their party in. >> brown: stu, i see your mind turning to the next election. >> coming out of this, my sense is the republicans are not going to feel that now that the president has been re-elected a significant victory, an important victory. but they're not going to see it as something that will cause them to suddenly compromise to use a word that we don't use very much in washington anymore. i think that's the problem. i think in spite of the president's re-election and in spite of, well, it looks to be a

pretty good night for the democrats in the senate. a lot of house republicans will draw a different conclusion and say, hey, you know what? the 2014 mid-term elections they're going to be terrific for us. this is the second mid-term election with barack obama. you have to understand, sure, these results are important but the question is what lessons do the politicians draw from them. >> brown: what's your reading on the house races? do they detach themselves from the presidential races? >> it goes a lot to what we were talking about with the paul ryan budget. democrats attempted to use there as their wedge issue. it doesn't appear to have worked. it might work in a few individual races but they weren't really ready to make these national elections. candidates matter and redrawing of the lines matter. this will be a lasting change when you look at the regions where democrats are losing. >> ifill: one of the interesting things about the election year is as we wait to hear, we're watching the people in front of the white house. there's a big party going on out there right now.

not too far from us. you know, we usually wait to hear these candidates speak. this is in front of the white house. let's take a look at what's happening in boston at romney headquarters. they're waiting to see their guy. this has not been a good night for romney supporters. we used to always wait to hear the speakers come out to concede or to accept the win, the victory. in fact tonight what we're seeing instead is a tweet from president obama. before we hear him formally accept it and the tweet says we're all in this together. that's how we campaigned. that's who we are. thank you. it signed b.o., which is his twitter, that's how you know his staff didn't sign it. those are his initials. we get to hear a tweet from the president. >> i remember the gettysburg tweet. it was one of lincoln's great... >> ifill: and that truman tweet when he beat dewey. so there. >> woodruff: from now on american politics is completely changed. never going to be the same when you tweet. the first communication we hear from the president of the united

states is on twitter. >> ifill: can you imagine this president and this after four years of having unsuccessfully found a way to work hand in hand with this republican-dominated house and sometimes recalcitrant democratic senate, can you imagine that things are going to change? the president took the saying in the last several weeks i know we'll just take the air out of the bubble and we'll all get along. >> they were elected too. they were elected on platform. their platform was very clear. we will not raise taxes. they've got to do what they were elected to do. the white house will be tempted to push it to the cliff. this is going to be a scary economic time for the next... they may just delay the final thing. but i've always thought there's a good 30 or 40% chance we go over the cliff and face the consequences. >> woodruff: you mean in the long term.

>> no. woodruff: when you say go over the cliff for a few days just as a way of coming around to agreement later. >> the cliff was never addressed on the campaign. >> ifill: neither of them really... >> we didn't have an answer. it was unpalatable to some degree for their own constituencies. now we're in a different time. i mean the election is over. the balloons and the bunting and the bands will be over. we're facing a stark reality. i think whatever else the national interest has to intrude and supersede even party platforms. >> i should mention one thing this election was for sure going to settle was whether obama care would be implemented. that was the one thing that was black and white. that was either going to happen or not. >> woodruff: governor romney was going to repeal it on day one. >> that's right. the one thing that the president could say is i ran on raising

taxes on those earning over $250,000 and i won. i mean that is the one inequivocal thing. romney could say it was obama care's repeal. one won and the other didn't. >> woodruff: we're watching as we discuss what's going to happen after the election, we're watching a very happy crowd in chicago and a moment ago we had a look at the crowd briefly in boston. at romney's quarters. this is still chicago. and here is boston. >> ifill: far more glum crowd. woodruff: not cheering not as happy. >> ifill: the presidential motorcade has arrived at the hotel about an hour or so ago. we know that he's there with the first lady and daughters. they're waiting to see the next move and see when they come out and give their speeches. we assume there will be a series of speeches. >> ifill: looks like they're

bringing somebody out on stage. we can't tell who it is. it could be musical entertainment. i have to say when it comes to music, we've been treated to some of the best during this campaign from kid rock to governor romney to meatloaf and j-z for the president. for a while they were bringing their human i-pods along. >> ifill: judy just said j-z. i'm very proud of you. how does this compare? we were all here four years ago on this night when history was made and president obama was elected the first time. how does this compare to you? >> it pales in comparison. i remember jesse jackson sr. weeping there. i mean that was a once in a lifetime historical moment. >> ifill: i've heard many obama supporters say that re-electing the president was re-electing the president was even more important than electing him. >> you can't get to the second without the first. the first was a universal. >> woodruff: to interrupt you quickly to say we've just

learned that governor romney is on his way to the convention center in boston. of course we'll take that. >> sure. i just think beyond the support of barack obama it was an afrming moment for america. it really was. >> ifill: and this is? this is an affirming moment for barack obama. and his supporters and the campaign. what he's trieded to do and what he wants to try to do but it isn't the same cosmic global emotional... >> woodruff: when you think about it, a year ago, six months ago, nine months ago, the over overwhelming prediction was this president could be beaten. this president was facing, and a year-and-a-half ago you look at any number of intervals over the last year or two, the prediction was he could be beaten. >> i didn't think he was going to lose but i thought he could have been beaten a week ago. i thought sandy helped. i think the country was ready to

look for an alternative. the numbers all showed that. they never saw the alternative in mitt romney. i think part of that was the auto bailout in ohio and the early ads. >> ifill: what does it say about mitt romney's future? he ran for president four years ago. didn't make it out of the primaries. ran for president this time. gritted it out and won the primary nomination. this time he doesn't win. does he have a future in politics? >> no. woodruff: i think his... no. woodruff: he said this was the last. >> i think he could be proud. the last six weeks of the campaign were really done well. he began to give really good speeches. i think he can be proud in general maybe not the whole campaign especially during the primary season. but i think he finished well. >> the republicans would nominate ronald reagan at the age of 69 which mitt ro romney will be in 2016 because he had been the leader of the movement within the party. he had been the leader, he put the face, the voice and really

the spirit of the entire conservative movement within the republican party. but mitt romney does not represent any sort of an ideological or philosophical movement within the party. >> ifill: was he outplayeded by the obama forces? >> i think he was just a terrible choice for these times. i mean, the last thing in the world you wantedded was a private equity banker to run in these times as the republican candidate for president. >> woodruff: as you look at the republican landscape out there and you think about the republicans who decided not to run, mitch daniels, the governor of indiana, chris christie, the governor of new jersey and there were several others who were touted as potential candidates who decided not to,. >> i think they would have had an extremely decent chance of winning. i don't know if they would have won. daniels was not a great charismatic person but he stays in people's living rooms.

>> ifill: we have already reported that the major television networks have projected president obama as the winner of this election, that the associated press is also now saying the same thing. >> do we have the popular vote? the last time i checked i think governor romney won the popular vote. >> ifill: we don't know where florida is until tomorrow. >> california is still sitting out there. >> woodruff: we may have preliminary numbers unfinished numbers. >> ifill: romney was slightly ahead is what we're seeing. >> i just hope for the country that the winner of the electoral college and the winner of the popular are the same person. >> woodruff: how much difference would that make? >> given the suspicion. woodruff: it's what happened in 2000. >> i know and it wasn't good. well, the west coast is pretty democratic. i don't think that's likely from

what we know. >> woodruff: because of these numbers that are still out, the south florida numbers and the fact that ohio is still being counted. >> the polls closed in california 45 minutes ago. >> ifill: that would be a good question to direct to our historians if they are alert and with us because i am actually very curious about this idea. this has been a very popular conversation we've been having for some time for the last couple weeks in washington about the idea of an electoral popular vote split. has that happened before other than the obvious time that we remember in 2000 when we were all here together talking about it? and what was the result? >> it happened a number of times. there have been people who have been tried to use the fact that the president elected by the electoral college didn't have the popular vote to cast doubt on him as something less than a president. it never worked. anyone who talks about this should take a look at the constitution, the way the founders decided to choose presidents was through the

electoral college. until that is changed whoever wins the electoral college will be president. >> anyone who is elected with a minority of the popular vote has had a cloud over them. and has had to in effect earn his legitimacy. the democrats referred to rutherford haze as his fraudulenty. john quincy adams never did recover from the conditions of his election. >> benjamin harrison. and i also think, let's face it, there have been over the last four years a certain element of americans who have devoted themselves night and day to disputing the legitimacy of barack obama's presidency. had he, if he were to notwithstanding a win even a convincing win in the electoral college to come in second in the popular vote i guarantee you it would, you know, put the wind behind their sails.

>> you know, at the same time politically a lot of the people that you're talking were exactly the ones who quite rightly took serious exception when people said the same thing about george w. bush after 2000. >> ifill: we're going to dig back into your political... your historical trick bag because we're hearing reports on two cable networks that governor romney does not plan to concede ohio tonight. now we don't... we haven't confirmed that independently. we want to wait and see what he actually does but i am curious about this. there are some outstanding votes. there are some states which haven't actually given formal vote counts. we're still waiting to see virginia which hasn't been called. we're still waiting to hear florida which hasn't been called. has there ever been a case that you can think of off the top of your head or the top of your deep knowledge, the bottom of your deep knowledge where it's been so clearly up in the air and one candidate or another did not concede?

>> well, 2004 but again the aforementioned woodrow wilson in 1916, his opponent governor hughes went to bed on election night convinced that he had won. there's a famous story about a reporter who called in the butler and the... the butler answered and said the president-elect has gone to bed. he said tell the president-elect when he wakes up in the morning that he's no longer president. it took 48 hours in 1916 to confirm the fact that california had gone for wilson by 3,000 votes. that put him over the top. >> you know, judy and gwen, we're living in a different atmosphere after 2000. go back to 1960. john kennedy won texas by about 45,000 votes. illinois by about 9,000 votes. very close margins. a lot of people calling for the recount. in those times nixon felt politically he couldn't do it. i think if the same result occurred today, post 2000, there

would be huge pressure on nixon not to concede and to essentially generate a lot of lawsuits. >> gerald ford in 1976 lost the election basically in southern ohio lost ohio by 11,000 votes and hawaii which 4,000. the next morning there was never any question about his conceding. >> woodruff: all these questions about whether a state should have been called in this instance we're talking about ohio. the television networks have projected ohio. it's also the associated press. it's my understanding there's a consensus the major news organizations about ohio. if it is the case that governor romney is not accepting that caulker that will be interesting because it's on that basis that these projections are, you know, have been made. >> maybe the person we should be

talking to at this moment is not governor romney but the secretary of state of ohio. >> the governor or rob portman the senator. >> he's got a number of very close allies in the state of ohio. it may well be that they're giving him different information that the news organizations don't have. we're in the purely in the realm of speculation. we are continuing to watch these i think it's fair to say wildly happy pictures of the obama crowd at mccormack place in chicago. we were told several minutes ago that governor romney was on his way to the convention center in boston. but we still don't know much more than that at this point. >> ifill: there does seem to be a delay not only in hearing from governor romney but obviously president obama is waiting on a concession speech before he can make any kind of speech of his own. >> ifill: and the obligatory

phone calls which are fairful for the loser to make. we have no way of knowing if there's been a phone call. if this report we're hearing that governor romney is is not accepting the call of ohio, then he wouldn't have made the phone call. unless we get back to 2000 when you make the phone call. >> al gore and bill daley. just a moment from 2008 and perhaps one of the truly most gracious concession speeches i've ever heard was that of john mccain. it was just a magnanimous and generous speech. >> ifill: you unlike a night like tonight he had some time to think about it because this one it seemed right up until the end. >> i was just speaking with some mccain or some romney people last night. they were working on the victory speech. they were not faking it. they thought they would win. >> ifill: so we now have another call. this one is the associated press reporting that colorado, the state of colorado which had been

a huge battle ground state and a test of many of the womens of this campaign, come come has been called for president obama. >> woodruff: if that's the case, david and mark, okay. i mean if you don't have... even if ohio were to go romney, if the president has won wisconsin, iowa, colorado, and nevada, and other states, nevada. we don't know yet about florida. or virginia. we know that governor romney has won north carolina. >> i think you're still there. that's 60 votes. ifill: let's go to chicago as we add it all up. let's go to ray suarez who is somewhere in that crowd. hi, ray. >> if there are discouraging words that are starting to circulate around the united

states about the status of ohio and the status of the electoral vote count, they haven't quite penetrated in this crowd that is waving the flag, jumping up and down. people are dancing to '60s, '70s and '80s hits. every time one of these screens flashes a word that romney may not be ready to concede, sources saying that ohio in doubt, it seems not to register at all while each new call of a state by one or another of the competing news services gets an immediate, enormous ovation. this is like something with a roof on it. they're waiting now. they've had the experience of the joy of having the president's re-election projected by the news services. they're waiting for somebody to come and talk to them. it's been quite some time since the president's election was predicted by the various

networks. we're sort of just in a holding pattern right now. >> woodruff: ray, this is judy. we are being told now that at least two television networks have called nevada for the president which if you add it up, that means even if the president did not win ohio it's believed that that would give him the 270 he needed. that was another battle ground state that the republicans that the romney campaign had battled. that's on top of colorado which we said a moment ago had been called for the president. so, ray, it's looking like whether it includes ohio or not, the president has apparently reached the 270 even by this other route. >> that may be the case but what this crowd is waiting for is to hear from the president. if there is this doubt that remains and given the custom of hearing from a defeated

candidate first, we may not see the president in this room for quite some time. that's what it's sounding like. >> ifill: since we have just heard from nevada and colorado i think perhaps the numbers may be adding up differently whether there's ohio or not. we do want to give updated electoral college numbers as we see them now tonight with president obama now with 289 electoral votes when he needs 270 to win. and mitt romney with 203 electoral votes. still well short of his 270 he would need to win. >> woodruff: this projection, gwen, i believe does include ohio because a.p. and two of the networks... i think all the television networks have now called it. so that 289 figure but again if you take out ohio which is 18 you're still at 271. that means the president is over the top unless the romney camp is also challenging some of these other calls in nevada, colorado, iowa, wisconsin and so

on. >> ifill: david is shaking his head. >> they're hoping for a miracle, a clean sweep of the florida. i mean, i don't know, maybe they have some inside information that we don't have. they've had conversations. it does not look very plausible. >> it doesn't. this is that moment when there's an argument inside. when you are thinking about and you should be thinking about is how mitt romney goes out. his exit is one that's made a larger man than he was and a larger vision about the country. his final word the national candidate will be to the people of the country and not let's just get the board of elections from the counties in ohio and subpoena them or something. >> it's possible they don't. i've had conversations with people charged with writing the concession speech. sometimes they don't want to read that speech. >> ifill: who would want to? n some cases the speech writer has it. that's all.

no one else has seen that. >> ifill: this would be a good time to catch up on what's happening in the house and senate. we learnd from the exit polls tonight, jeff. >> brown: well, stu and christina, we've been listening to a situation here. let's catch up on, we're still waiting on some interesting senate races, aren't we? wisconsin's one. >> arizona and virginia. we had that call so never mind. scratch that. north dakota was the other one. this is a state that they called for mitt romney winning the presidential level hours ago and we still don't have a call there. >> brown: same in wisconsin. an early call for the president. >> tammy baldwin if she wins would be the first openly lesbian senator in the country. >> brown: interestingly enough did not... again i was there recently. it did not play any role. didn't even barely came up in the campaign. >> yeah. well she did get a lot of support from national groups that looked to her as not only a

progressive leader but somebody who could carry this movement. it wasn't playing on the ground there which is interesting. >> brown: stu? it the curious if you looked... you'd say the president is in trouble. a year ago if you looked at the senate you would say the republicans have aate lot of opportunities. right now, you know, the president has had a very good night. winning states we knew he was going to win but also winning most, some, all of the swing states. and in these senate races i think the democrats are showing very well. but the nature of american politics is checks and balances. and in the house it's just not showing up that way. now whether it's the candidates, whether it's the messages, the kinds of campaigns that you can run when you are in a presidential race or a statewide race versus a much more targeted race in the house or districts drawn to elect one party or the other in the house, what we're seeing at the congressional level looks to be more of a split decision.

>> to get back what the others were talking about this fiscal cliff issue, these democrats that will be pretty excited to see their friends, claire mccaskill coming back to the senate ton the president being re-elected they are going to have to deal with enormous challenges, taxes and cutting deficits and spending. another big race is montana where you have senator john tester waiting to see if he has won a second term against the congressman. very, very close race there. >> brown: there was one other exit poll we didn't get a chance to talk about it. we talked about race and gender. age was another one. that clearly goes to again something we've been talking about all night. >> the thing that jumped out at me is that in 19... in 2008... i think that was the last presidential race we had. voters 18 to 29 constituted 18% of the electorate. this time 19% in the exit poll. now remember everybody, all the smart pundits and analysts like myself assume that there was

less enthusiasm among younger voters and that they would constitute a smaller part of the electorate. these numbers suggest we were wrong. conversely when you look at 65 and older, there was a... again a slight change there. they went up from 16% in 2008 to 17% but didn't dramatically remake the electorate. i think that... >> brown: we're looking at the 2012. that's the latest. >> right. you see the president basically won with voters 44 and under. mitt romney won voters 45 and older. one trend that a lot of people take a look at is if a young person votes for a party three elections in a row they're likely to be a member of that party for life. the democrats talked a lot about building that sort of coalition in 2008. so there was a lot of fear with the enthusiasm gap of younger voters dropped off that this could be a party loss to the demate karates. the numbers that stu is talking about could indicate that this is a coalition that they could keep. >> brown: that applies various

exit polling numbers we've been looking at all night. this coalition. >> absolutely. we've talkd about different gender and ethnicity as well. >> the party coalitions have definitely... generally held. there have been some small changes in terms of percentages. but the kind of the picture of each of the parties has been made remarkably consistent. by the way, i should note i don't think we noted earlier that the white percentage of the electorate on this exit poll that came out today was 73%. four years ago it was 74%. so what you see is this continuing development of the electorate. little by little seems to favor democrats over the long term. and the republicans are going to have to figure out how to deal with that. >> the states you'll be looking at that end perhaps in 2016 texas, arizona where you're seeing a lot of demographic change is going to be somethin something... >> brown: we didn't see that yet. >> you haven't seen it yet but you're seeing the schiffs. that's one reason why they're making a lot of population gains. it's changing the election there. it's probably a few cycles off.

>> brown: one other thing to the question of the final vote here. the states that we're looking at coming up on the west coast. >> in the senate or in the house? you don't see any major changes coming there? >> montana senate race has been very close in the polling. north dakota. i think most insiders believe that the democrat heidi heitcamp is a slight underdog. that would be one republican takeover. virginia looks very close. wisconsin very close. no, i don't see any fundamental shift here. this looks like democrats are going to be releaved. frankly i think national republicans are going to be disappointed. even if they just get a wash. >> brown: stu and christina, thanks. back to you, judy and gwen. >> ifill: we have a a couple of things to share with our audience. we want to let our pbs stations around the country know we will be taking no more breaks. we'll have continuous coverage as we wait for the pre